A short history of nearly everything - Bill Bryson [101]
Even if we did manage somehow to get a warhead to the asteroid and blasted it to pieces, the chances are that we would simply turn it into a string of rocks that would slam into us one after the other in the manner of Comet Shoemaker-Levy on Jupiter—but with the difference that now the rocks would be intensely radioactive. Tom Gehrels, an asteroid hunter at the University of Arizona, thinks that even a year's warning would probably be insufficient to take appropriate action. The greater likelihood, however, is that we wouldn't see any object—even a comet—until it was about six months away, which would be much too late. Shoemaker-Levy 9 had been orbiting Jupiter in a fairly conspicuous manner since 1929, but it took over half a century before anyone noticed.
Interestingly, because these things are so difficult to compute and must incorporate such a significant margin of error, even if we knew an object was heading our way we wouldn't know until nearly the end—the last couple of weeks anyway—whether collision was certain. For most of the time of the object's approach we would exist in a kind of cone of uncertainty. It would certainly be the most interesting few months in the history of the world. And imagine the party if it passed safely.
“So how often does something like the Manson impact happen?” I asked Anderson and Witzke before leaving.
“Oh, about once every million years on average,” said Witzke.
“And remember,” added Anderson, “this was a relatively minor event. Do you know how many extinctions were associated with the Manson impact?”
“No idea,” I replied.
“None,” he said, with a strange air of satisfaction. “Not one.”
Of course, Witzke and Anderson added hastily and more or less in unison, there would have been terrible devastation across much of the Earth, as just described, and complete annihilation for hundreds of miles around ground zero. But life is hardy, and when the smoke cleared there were enough lucky survivors from every species that none permanently perished.
The good news, it appears, is that it takes an awful lot to extinguish a species. The bad news is that the good news can never be counted on. Worse still, it isn't actually necessary to look to space for petrifying danger. As we are about to see, Earth can provide plenty of danger of its own.
14 THE FIRE BELOW
IN THE SUMMER of 1971, a young geologist named Mike Voorhies was scouting around on some grassy farmland in eastern Nebraska, not far from the little town of Orchard, where he had grown up. Passing through a steep-sided gully, he spotted a curious glint in the brush above and clambered up to have a look. What he had seen was the perfectly preserved skull of a young rhinoceros, which had been washed out by recent heavy rains.
A few yards beyond, it turned out, was one of the most extraordinary fossil beds ever discovered in North America, a dried-up water hole that had served as a mass grave for scores of animals—rhinoceroses, zebra-like horses, saber-toothed deer, camels, turtles. All had died from some mysterious cataclysm just under twelve million years ago in the time known to geology as the Miocene. In those days Nebraska stood on a vast, hot plain very like the Serengeti of Africa today. The animals had been found buried under volcanic ash up to ten feet deep. The puzzle of it was that there were not, and never had been, any volcanoes in Nebraska.
Today, the site of Voorhies's discovery is called Ashfall Fossil Beds State Park, and it has a stylish new visitors' center and museum, with thoughtful displays on the geology of Nebraska and the history of the fossil beds. The center incorporates a lab with a glass wall through which visitors can watch paleontologists cleaning bones. Working alone in the lab on the morning I passed through was a cheerfully grizzled-looking