Being Wrong - Kathryn Schulz [177]
“Of some things we feel that we are certain.” James, 13.
“a gift of Memory, the mother of the Muses.” Plato, 60. The discussion of memory continues through p. 70.
the real question about this model might simply be whether the nonscientists among us can be brought to believe in it. Our reluctance to accept a non-intuitive model of memory (or of anything else) is, itself, somewhat related to the feeling of knowing. Call it the feeling of understanding: we are far more inclined to accept explanations that feel right to us than those that don’t. The trouble is that explanations that feel right can be wrong, and explanations that feel confusing or repellant can be right. Nonetheless, even people with a strong grasp of what constitutes good grounds for knowledge can be seduced by this feels-right criterion. The philosopher J. D. Trout cites by way of example Copernicus, that early advocate of heliocentrism, who once said of two other theories about the structure of the galaxy that “the mind shudders at either of these suppositions.” Now, famously, Copernicus was right—the earth really does revolve around the sun—but if a shuddering mind had been his only reason for rejecting other hypotheses, his argument would have been profoundly unpersuasive. As Trout notes, “The important question is whether heliocentrism is true, not whether envisioning an alternative is too intellectually painful to bear.” (J. D. Trout, “Scientific Explanation and the Sense of Understanding,” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 6 (June 2002): 212–233.
“plausible-sounding responses.” This quotation and the next one (“One of the characters involved in an inner dialogue…”) are from Hirstein, 3–4.
“rock-jawed certainty.” Hirstein, 2. The “admitting ignorance in response to a question” passage is on the same page. The “mildly confabulatory personality” and “stubborn, with an emphasis on being right” passages are on p. 4.
“When one admits that nothing is certain.” Bertrand Russell, The Collected Papers of Bertrand Russell, Vol. 11, John Slater and Peter Köllner, eds. (Routledge, 1997), 92.
CHAPTER 5 OUR MINDS, PART TWO: BELIEF
To my regret, Alan Greenspan declined (politely) to be interviewed for this book. The complete transcript of the congressional hearings he attended on Oct. 23, 2008 can be found at http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20081024163819.pdf. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes from Greenspan and Waxman are from that transcript. Biographical information on Greenspan comes from his autobiography, The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World (Penguin Press, 2008).
I am indebted to Rebecca Saxe for many early, interesting conversations about belief, error, and naïve realism that helped shape this chapter, and for the many related resources she sent my way.
In the words of the Economist. “Alan Greenspan,” the Economist, Jan. 12, 2006.
$8.5 million dollars. Motoko Rich, “The Plan to Push That Book Goes Poof,” the New York Times, Sept. 7, 2007.
In the United States, the stock market had fallen 37 percent since the start of the year. The American economy had lost 1.5 million jobs. “Job Losses Continue at Accelerated Pace,” Heather Boushey, Center for American Progress, Feb. 6, 2009.
a figure that would rise to over 5 million by early 2009. Peter S. Goodman and Jack Healy, “663,000 Jobs Lost in March; Total Tops 5 Million,” the New York Times, April 3, 2009.
between 18 and 50 million jobs would vanish. Carl Mortished, “Global Unemployment Heads Towards 50 Million,” the London Times, Jan. 29, 2009.
the Blackstone Group. Megan Davies and Walden Siew, “45 Percent of World’s Wealth Destroyed: Blackstone CEO,” Reuters, March 10, 2009.
“like being a Scholastic.” This quote comes from “The End,” a characteristically remarkable