Beyond Feelings - Vincent Ruggiero.original_ [47]
Here's how one's preferences can influence one's judgment. Two businessmen have just concluded an extended conference and are having a late dinner in a crowded restaurant. Across the room they notice an acquaintance dining with a woman. They realize she is not the man's wife. The first businessman has had several illicit affairs himself and assumes other people behave similarly. He is also erotically stimulated by the idea that the couple are cheating on their mates. He concludes that they are.
The second businessman likes to think well of people. He is also very disturbed by the thought of any thought of any kind of dishonesty, including martial infidelity. He concludes the couple are innocent of any wrongdoing.
Which conclusion is reasonable? Neither. In the absence of additional evidence, both are hasty conclusions. It may be that the couple are having an affair. Or it may not. (there could be any number of other explanations for their being together.) So the only reasonable reaction is not to draw any conclusion at that time.
THE UNPREDICTABLE ELEMENT
The other major cause of hasty conclusions – the peculiarities of certain situations – is largely unpredictable. Therefore, it can trap even the most careful thinker. Examples occur in every field of thought and work. One good example is the problem facing drug manufacturers. Every new drug must be thoroughly tested and proved safe for people to take before it can be released on the market. But testing is expensive and time-consuming. Furthermore, competition with other firms in the industry encourages speedy research. For these reasons it is tempting to judge a drug prematurely.
In the 9160s the most tragic example of this tendency was the drug thalidomide, which was branded safe and sold to thousands of pregnant women around the world. Only when hundreds of babies were born deformed, some grotesquely so, was the harm of the drug recognized. In the 1970s the "safe" drug Innovar began to be used as an anesthetic. A number of people now appear to have suffered extensive paralysis and brain damage from it.1
How much testing of drugs is enough? It is a difficult question. A drug called Intal has been effective in controlling the symptoms of asthma. A powder, it is sprayed into the bronchial passages. It desensitizes these passages so that they no longer constrict when allergens (pollen, for instance) are inhaled. During the early testing of this drug, one group of monkeys developed kidney lesions after being administered the drug. Was the reaction coincidental to the use of the drug, or did the drug cause the lesions? More testing was done, but the kidney lesions did not occur, so the conclusion was drawn that the lesions in the early testing had probably been coincidental.
It is possible that the conclusion about the drug Intal may be proved incorrect in the future. However, that would not mean that the original conclusion had been hasty. A conclusion is hasty only if the person drawing it fails to make a reasonable to obtain sufficient evidence to judge responsibly.
It is important not to rush to conclusions because once we forma nay conclusion, our curiosity in the matter is diminished. In other words, we make up our mind, and before we can even entertain a different conclusion, we must first unmake our mind. Doing that is difficult. "Mine is better" thinking, resistance to change, and face-saving weigh heavily against us.
Here are three suggestions that can help you avoid hasty conclusions in your thinking:
Before you draw any conclusion, be sure you have identified an answered all important questions pertaining to the issue.
Where you cannot obtain sufficient evidence, either withhold judgment or (if circumstances require an immediate judgment) use the "If… then" approach for example, if the issue