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Post-unification German foreign policy was found to display a mixture of continuity and change. The evaluation of each theory called attention to its successful and unsuccessful predictions. The study found that the eight cases examined strongly disconfirmed neorealism. The modified variant of neorealism did better. Social norms associated with constructivist theory turned out to yield the best explanation of post-unification German foreign policy, capturing both cases of continuity and change as well as hard and easy tests. Liberalism’s explanatory power seemed to depend on the policy network structure that dominated in a particular issue.401

Use of the Congruence Method in Studies of Deductive Theories that “Black Box” Decision-Making and Strategic Interaction

The congruence method can be useful also in the studies that work with deductive theories that “black box” decision-making or strategic interac-tion. Such studies employ a deductive theory to make predictions of outcomes in a single case or in a number of cases too few to permit statistical analysis. The research objective is often to test the performance of the deductive theory in question or to identify and bound its scope. If its performance proves to be inadequate—i.e., a number of incorrect predictions occur that can not be attributed to measurement errors—then one must ask whether the internal structure or contents of the theory are flawed and in need of reformulation. If so, the congruence method may be used to develop and refine the provisional theory.

These uses of the congruence method have been applied in international relations studies that work with structural-realist, rational choice, or game theories, all of which involve black box decision-making and strategic interaction, and also in studies that directly examine internal decision-making processes and the dynamics of strategic interaction. Use of the congruence method (though it is not known by this name) also is employed in small-n case studies that focus on theories of macro-political processes.

What is involved in using the congruence method in research projects which, as an initial simplification, black box or set aside internal processes of decision-making or strategic interaction? The first step is to formulate a version of the general deductive theory being employed—whether it be structural realism, rational choice, or game theory—that addresses more specifically the phenomenon being studied. This first step can be noted in studies such as those by Barry Posen, Vinod Aggarwal, David Yoffie, and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.402

A second step is to identify historical cases whose outcomes will enable the investigator to apply the congruence method to test, assess, or refine the theory’s predictive and explanatory power. Selection of cases is a critical decision in research design and it is discussed in detail in Chapter 4. Suffice it to note here that the investigator must avoid “selection bias” and be clear about whether a representative sample of the universe of cases of the phenomenon is necessary to satisfy the research objective and to reach an acceptable statement of the nature and scope of the findings. It is a common misunderstanding to assume or to insist that all small-n studies must somehow satisfy the requirement of a representative sample, and that the findings of a small-n study must be capable of projecting a valid probability distribution of outcomes for the entire universe.403

A third step is to match the predictions and expectations of the theory with the outcomes of the cases to see if they are consistent. If consistency is noted, then the investigator should address the several questions that were discussed earlier in this chapter regarding the causal significance that can be properly inferred from congruence. Outcomes not consistent with the predictions and expectations of the theory should receive special attention. How can one account for these discrepant cases? How can the possibility of measurement error