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not a fully developed deductive theory; it can make only very general probabilistic predictions, since it does not quantify its probabilistic claims. Strictly speaking, a finding that the outcomes of cases are consistent with probabilistic predictions is not an adequate basis for assuming a causal relationship exists unless other explanations for the outcomes are considered and eliminated. And even when support for some kind of causal relationship can be mustered, one must still establish whether the independent variable is either a necessary or sufficient condition for the outcome in question, and how much it contributes to a full explanation of the outcome.

In other words, partial, incomplete deductive theories based on structural realism often lack “operationalization”—i.e., the fine-tuning and specification of the theory that permits case-specific rather than general probabilistic prediction of outcomes for each of the cases examined. The only fully operationalized variant of a structural realist theory of which we are aware is that developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in The War Trap.

In striking contrast to The War Trap is the case that Christopher Achen and Duncan Snidal offered for rational deterrence theory. They made no effort to formulate the level of specification and refinement of the theory needed to make concrete predictions; therefore, the theory they provided was a quite primitive and nonfalsifiable deductive theory. That is, any outcome—whether deterrence succeeded or failed in particular cases —would be “explainable” by the vague rational deterrence theory they espoused. Even more disconcerting in the argument these authors made on behalf of the superiority of a rational deterrence theory was their failure to address the requirements of a full-fledged, operationalized deductive theory.405

Even when operationalized, deductive theories may fail to identify or provide a satisfactory account of the causal mechanism that links the theory to the outcomes in question. Proponents of deductive theories based on rational choice or game theory might say that a causal mechanism is implicit in the internal logic of such deductive theories and needs no further explication or demonstration if the theory generates successful predictions. Yet some proponents of rational choice theory have recently emphasized the need to couple and integrate the rational choice framework with detailed case studies that make use of process-tracing in order to establish intervening causal processes.406 We stated earlier that the congruence method applies not only to theories that focus on the causal role of beliefs in decision-making but, as has now been discussed, also to deductive theories associated with the structural realist theory of international relations and more generally to rational choice and game theories.

Chapter 10

Process-Tracing and Historical Explanation

In the last few decades process-tracing has achieved increasing recognition and widespread use by political scientists and political sociologists. David Collier observes that “refinements in methods of small-n analysis have substantially broadened the range of techniques available to comparative researchers.” He emphasizes, as we do, that “within-case comparisons are critical to the viability of small-n analysis” and have contributed to the move “to historicize the social sciences.”407 Similarly, Charles Tilly emphasized the importance of what we call process-tracing in urging that theoretical propositions should be based not on “large-N statistical analysis” but on “relevant, verifiable causal stories resting in differing chains of cause-effect relations whose efficacy can be demonstrated independently of those stories.”408

David Laitin emphasizes the importance of theoretically oriented narratives and process-tracing which, he states, have made a “fundamental contribution … in finding regularities through juxtaposition of historical cases… . If statistical work addresses questions of propensities, narratives address the questions of process.”409 Jack Goldstone