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Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences - Alexander L. George [122]

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differently. For this type of exercise, a robust counterfactual is required—one that purports to identify the critical variable(s) and the alternatives actually available (considered and rejected) that might have produced a better outcome if they had been adopted. This type of reasoning often accompanies or underlies the assertion that in a given situation there was a “missed opportunity” to accomplish a desirable or better outcome. 461

In this chapter we have discussed varieties of process-tracing and the different forms of causal processes to which process-tracing can be applied. In addition, we have discussed the various uses of this method in the formation, development, and the testing of theories, as well as the limitations of process-tracing. Finally, we have added a detailed discussion of historical explanation and indicated how it differs from process-tracing.

Chapter 11

Integrating Comparative and Within-Case Analysis: Typological Theory

Typological theorizing, or the development of contingent generalizations about combinations or configurations of variables that constitute theoretical types, has a long history in the social sciences. Significant developments date back to Max Weber’s discussion of “ideal types” early in the twentieth century and Paul Lazarsfeld’s analysis of “property spaces” in the 1930s.462 Its advantages include its ability to address complex phenomena without oversimplifying, clarify similarities and differences among cases to facilitate comparisons, provide a comprehensive inventory of all possible kinds of cases, incorporate interactions effects, and draw attention to “empty cells” or kinds of cases that have not occurred and perhaps cannot occur.463

In this chapter, we add to earlier discussions of typological theorizing in several ways. We show how typological theorizing and the cross-case comparisons it facilitates can be integrated with within-case methods of analysis to allow structured iterations between theories and cases. This combination of cross-case and within-case analysis greatly reduces the risks of inferential errors that can arise from using either method alone. We also demonstrate how typological theories can help identify which cases might best be selected for the research designs and theory-building purposes discussed by Harry Eckstein and other scholars. Case selection is arguably the most difficult step in developing a case study research design. It is an opportunistic process of seeking the intersection between the extant cases that history provides and the kind of cases and comparisons that are likely to best test or develop theories. Typological theorizing greatly clarifies which case comparisons and research designs are possible in view of the extant population of cases and which cases the researcher should select to carry out the research design she chooses. Finally, we discuss means of developing manageable typological theories of a half-dozen or more variables, despite the combinatorial complexity of such theories.

The chapter proceeds as follows. In the next sections we define typological theory and contrast typologies, which characterize variants of a phenomenon, with typological theories, which seek to identify the various causal mechanisms and pathways that link the independent variables of each “type,” or cell in a typology, with its outcome. In the third section, we discuss inductive and deductive approaches to specifying typological theories: in the former, the researcher studies cases to see what causal pathways might operate in them; and in the latter, the researcher creates a logical structure of possibilities before studying cases. Fourth, we turn to the frequent need to reduce the property space; this practice can help a researcher decide which of the types specified in the theory are the best candidates for detailed study. Fifth, we discuss how to select specific cases from the reduced property space in order to construct each of the research designs discussed in Chapter 4. The sixth section discusses how process-tracing can be integrated

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