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By Root 1531 0

for example, advanced a theory of the “missing component” in describing how he adapted the problem-solving approach to policymaking. He believed that many problems could be solved if the statesman discovers the missing component, the introduction of which would make a difficult situation manageable. The art of finding the missing component lies in mastering a knowledge of all the present and potential elements in a situation and determining what new element, if added by U.S. policy, would make the difficult situation more manageable. Acheson tried to apply this theory to the perennial question of whether to give economic and military aid to underdeveloped countries. He recommended against it when U.S. aid could not provide the local governments in question with the other necessary elements they lacked—the loyalty of their people and honest and efficient administration.536

Third, taking note of a concern often expressed by policymakers, scholars should not define concepts and variables at too high a level of abstraction. The more abstract a concept, the more remote it is from its referent in the real world, and the more difficult the intellectual demand on the practitioner to make that linkage and to benefit from it.

Fourth, scholars should recognize that too strict a pursuit of the scientific criterion of parsimony in their efforts to theorize is inappropriate for developing useful policy-relevant theory and knowledge. A rich theory—one that encompasses a relatively large number of the variables that can influence the outcome of a policy—is often more useful in policymaking than a simpler theory of narrow scope, such as structural-realist theory, that encompasses only a few causal variables. The policymaker who must deal with complex situations that embrace many variables gets more help from a rich theory (even though it may enjoy less verification) than from a simple, parsimonious theory that establishes a firm linkage of some kind among only a few of the operative variables. This does not mean that the policymaker is reduced to making highly speculative judgments. Thorough verification of rich theories is not usually a major issue for policymakers; they can try to assess the validity of a theory or generalizations for at least the particular case at hand by using the detailed information available on that case.

A rich theory is useful to policymakers if it meets two criteria: its contents must be at least plausible, and it must indicate the special conditions under which its propositions are likely to be true or false. Such a rich, differentiated theory serves at the very least as a sophisticated checklist to remind policy analysts and policymakers of the numerous conditions and variables that can influence their ability to achieve desired outcomes and to avoid undesired ones in any given foreign policy activity. When more fully developed, a rich, differentiated theory about a particular type of foreign policy activity identifies those conditions that favor the policy’s success. Such conditions have causal relevance even when, as is often the case, they cannot be regarded as being either necessary or sufficient for a given outcome to occur.

Fifth, the production of such relatively specific conditional generalizations should be an important objective in developing policy-applicable theory. These are more useful in policymaking than broad generalizations that merely assert a probabilistic relationship between two variables without identifying the conditions under which the relationship does and does not hold. Conditional generalizations of more limited scope are also more useful than deductive theories and universal generalizations that can claim no more than perhaps to have identified a necessary condition for the success of a particular policy instrument or undertaking (without assessing the extent of its causal importance), but say little or nothing about what else must also be present for that favorable outcome to occur.

This is not to say, however, that producing conditional generalizations is a relatively simple