Catastrophe - Dick Morris [26]
By channeling the nation’s anger about the economic mismanagement and greed that had caused the depression, FDR was able to distract voters from the grim fact that the depression had not been cured by his four years of Keynesian policies.
Instead of economic recovery, he focused on building his support among three key constituency groups: labor, farmers, and the elderly. Piecing together an electoral coalition from these special interests, he managed to assure himself of a solid and ongoing majority.
The elderly were given Social Security, which offered—for the first time—the assurance of pensions in old age. The farmers were given the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which set limits on production and paid them to keep down crop yields, first stabilizing and then inflating agricultural prices. Unions were given the Wagner Act, which made it easy to form a labor organization, guaranteed the right to strike, and established a procedure of secret ballot in representation elections.
Barack Obama knows his history well. If his economic stimulus plan fails—and the economy continues to tank—he can fall back on class divisions to get reelected.
By continuously hammering on sensationalist topics such as extravagant executive compensation, bonuses for employees of bailed-out companies, and the disproportionate earnings of the rich, he hopes to keep alive the spirit of anger and division—and keep his job.
But Obama misjudges the meaning of class in the United States. In Europe, where the heritage of Marxism is stronger, class divisions are seen as more permanent. Upward mobility has been lacking—historically thwarted in earlier times by class structure and prejudices and, these days, by the lack of economic growth.
In Europe, class lines have become rigid over the centuries; each class has developed a narrative to glorify its place in the social order. Americans see class divisions aspirationally, looking forward to the day when they can move up. Denied the easy prospect of upward mobility, the European worker is likely to feel envy and resentment, not ambition, toward the gentry.
Can Obama cash in on class resentments in the United States that mirror European politics? Is the American Dream dead?
The answer is a decisive NO! The dream is far from dead. Upward mobility in the United States continues, as it has historically.
Obama and liberals like to cite data showing that the top 20 percent of earners in the United States are making more, while the bottom 20 percent are making proportionately less. But the fact is that the makeup of that bottom 20 percent is changing constantly, as new immigrants, both legal and illegal, come in and find their footing on the lowest rung on the economic ladder. Meanwhile, those who were once in the bottom 20 percent continue their steady upward climb.
One recent study by the Congressional Joint Economic Committee analyzed those who were in the bottom 20 percent in 1979. By 1988, it found, “more of them had reached the top income quintile (14.7 percent) than had remained at the bottom (14.2 percent).”90 “In other words,” the committee concluded, “a member of the bottom income bracket in 1979 would have a better chance of moving to the top income bracket by 1988 than [of] remaining in the bottom bracket.”91 And 86 percent of those who were among the bottom 20 percent in income in 1979 rose out of this category in the ensuing nine years.
More typical of the traditional attitude of Americans toward class is the philosophy of John F. Kennedy, whose economic program was aimed at encouraging growth through tax cuts. “A rising tide,” he said, “lifts all boats.”92
This theory of shared outcomes has often been derided by liberals as “trickle-down economics”—as a theory that hopes the success of the rich will flow down to everyone else. The liberals have a point: In the past two decades, the income