Catastrophe - Dick Morris [53]
And in other elections for Congress throughout the nation, Hispanic voters helped put Democrats over the top.
Obama is determined to keep and exploit this political advantage. He understands, after all, that Latinos are going to be an increasingly dominant force in our politics.
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LATINO POPULATION GROWTH
Source: “Hispanic Population in United States: 1970–2050,” U.S. Census Bureau, www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hispanic/files/Projections.csv.
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And if Obama can put the 12 to 15 million immigrants who are here illegally on a path to lawful status and then to citizenship, he can increase the Latino voting presence materially—while winning the loyalty of Hispanic-American voters.
So Obama is determined to pass immigration reform. He has said that he’s “very committed” to changing the law and has asked that legislation be “drawn up over the next several months.”183 Though he doubtless realizes that it will be harder to act during a time of high unemployment—when American citizens are competing with illegal immigrants for jobs—he knows he must act while he commands the political arena, with such decisive majorities in Congress.
There appear to be three basic ways in which Obama will expand the ranks of Latino voters in the United States:
By legislating an amnesty program for those already here
By providing incentives for more to come
By easing the path to naturalization and citizenship once they have gotten amnesty
Of course, these ideas will come with a lot of window dressing, including proposals to strengthen border enforcement and stop illegal immigration. But the incentives Obama is proposing will encourage many to leap the fence and come anyway. He’s counting on it.
Congress being Congress, most of the debate on Obama’s immigration reform legislation, when he submits it, will focus on the details of his amnesty provision. He’s certain to follow at least the Bush approach of earned amnesty. Obama has offered us some clues as to his thinking on the subject: in a speech in Los Angeles this spring, he said that “illegal residents who have been in the United States a long time and have put down roots should have a mechanism for achieving legal status. They would have to learn English, pay a significant fine and go to the back of the line of those applying for legal entry.”184
By focusing on “illegal residents who have been in the United States a long time and have put down roots,” Obama means that he’ll reward those who have successfully dodged the INS for five years. In return for their hiding out from our laws, he’ll grant them eventual citizenship.
Whatever the final details of his legislative proposals are, the important thing is not the hurdles he’ll ask illegals to jump to acquire legal status. They’ll do whatever he asks. The real question is what incentives he’ll put in place to encourage more and more people to come here, legally or illegally. The lures on this side of the border do far more to determine the flow of immigration than any other factor. And Obama is determined to roll out big prizes for coming here.
Although he claims that his health care plan won’t cover illegal immigrants, we already know he’s willing to turn an illegal immigrant into a legal one at the drop of a hat.
And the rewards for immigrants who have achieved legal status will be enormous! Obama plans to extend health care coverage to legal immigrants (even if they have just barely achieved this status through complying with his amnesty provisions). This coverage, of course, would extend to their families as well. Legal immigrants are now eligible for food stamps, disability insurance, and a host of other benefits. Obama will probably agree with Democratic proposals to guarantee in-state tuition at colleges to legal immigrants. He will incentivize leaping the fence—and in doing so he’ll lure millions more Latinos to come here, all in the