Downing Street Years - Margaret Thatcher [436]
In the early months of 1988 my relations with Nigel worsened. I sought to discourage too much exchange rate intervention, but without much success. It seemed to me contradictory to raise interest rates — as we did by half a percentage point in February — while at the same time intervening to hold down sterling. But, equally, I knew that once I exerted my authority to forbid intervention on this scale it would be at the cost of my already damaged working relationship with Nigel. He had boxed himself into a situation where his own standing as Chancellor would be weakened if the pound went above DM3. It was a convincing if unwelcome demonstration of the folly of regarding a particular exchange rate parity as the criterion for political and economic success.
By the beginning of March, however, I had no option. On 2 and 3 March 1988 over £1 billion of intervention took place. The Bank of England, which is traditionally all for a managed exchange rate, was deeply anxious about the policy. So, I knew, were senior Treasury officials, though of course they could not say so openly.
I had the matter out with Nigel at two meetings on Friday 4 March. I again complained about the level of exchange rate intervention. For his part, Nigel said it would be sterilized. But he did accept that intervention at the present rate could not continue indefinitely. I asked him to consult the Bank of England and report back later that day on whether the DM3 ‘cap’ should be removed and, if so, when. When he returned he accepted that if on Monday there was still strong demand for sterling the rate should be allowed to go above DM3. He was keen to have some further intervention to break the speed at which the exchange rate might rise. I expressed my concern about this and said that my strong preference would be to allow time for the rate to find its own level without any intervention. But I was prepared to go along with some limited intervention if necessary. The pound accordingly rose through the DM3 limit.
Immediately, the Opposition and the media sought to make capital out of divisions between Nigel and me. I set out the policy accurately and the thinking behind it in the House of Commons on Thursday 10 March at Prime Minister’s Questions:
My Rt. Hon. Friend the Chancellor and I are absolutely agreed that the paramount objective is to keep inflation down. The Chancellor never said that aiming for greater exchange rate stability meant total immobility. Adjustments are needed, as we learnt when we had a Bretton Woods system, as those in the EMS have learnt that they must have revaluation and devaluation from time to time. There is no way in which one can buck the market.
This last remark however provoked a flurry of press comment to which truth was no defence. The trouble was that it appeared to contrast with Nigel’s continuing public statements that he did not want to see the exchange rate appreciate further. From now on it would be increasingly difficult to convince the markets that my Chancellor and I were at one. And, of course, the perception they had was basically an accurate one.
The