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at the power stations must be increased, but it was impossible to take this action without its becoming known, and the faster stocks were transferred the more visible it would be. Jim Prior advised that we should not even discuss the matter with the industries involved, on the ground that it would be provocative to do so. The Department of Energy was very slow in giving effect to the decision that 4–5 million tons should be moved by the time that the NUM pay negotiations took place in the autumn. We were told that the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) would probably have to acquire extra land if higher stocks than this were to be built up. I held a meeting on 19 June to review the position. It seemed to me that the risks of moving coal stocks had been exaggerated. After all, stocks at the pits had increased from 13 million to 22 million tons over the past 12 months and it was natural that there should be some extra movement.

The real question in my mind was whether — even if we could substantially increase the rate of movement of coal to the power stations — we would in practice be able to resist a strike that winter. It was evident from the NUM Conference which took place in Jersey in July that the left wing of the union had become obsessed with the idea of taking on the Government and that Arthur Scargill, by this stage certain of the presidency, would make this his policy. Willie Whitelaw, as Home Secretary the minister in overall charge of civil contingency planning, had overseen a study of how to withstand a coal strike that winter. He sent me a report on 22 July, which concluded that a strike this year probably could not be withstood for more than 13–14 weeks. The calculations took account of the transfer of coal stocks which we had put in hand. In theory, endurance could be increased by power cuts or the use of troops to move coal to the power stations. But either option was fraught with difficulty. There would be huge political pressure to give in to a strike. The union might see what was up if we set about increasing oil stocks for power stations. In August I reluctantly concluded that no such action should be taken in advance of that year’s NUM pay settlement. We would have to rely on a judicious mixture of flexibility and bluff until the Government was in a position to face down the challenge posed to the economy, and indeed potentially to the rule of law, by the combined force of monopoly and union power in the coal industry.

THE URBAN RIOTS OF 1981

Over the weekend of 10–12 April, riots broke out in Brixton, South London. Shops were looted, vehicles destroyed, and 149 police officers and 58 members of the public were injured. Two hundred and fifteen people were arrested. There were frightening scenes, reminiscent of riots in the United States during the 1960s and ‘70s. I accepted Willie Whitelaw’s suggestion that Lord Scarman, the distinguished Law Lord, should undertake an enquiry into the causes of what had happened and make recommendations.

There was a lull; then on Friday 3 July a battle in Southall between white skinheads and Asian youths erupted into a riot in which the police quickly became the main victims, attacked with petrol bombs, bricks and anything else to hand. The mob even turned on firemen and ambulancemen. Over the weekend, Toxteth in Liverpool was also the scene of violence: once again there were outbreaks of arson, looting and savage attacks on the police. The Merseyside police reacted vigorously and dispersed the mob with CS gas.

On 8 and 9 July it was the turn of Moss Side in Manchester to experience two days of serious disorder. The police presence was initially kept deliberately low, in the hope that ‘community leaders’ could calm matters down. This they singularly failed to do and so the police had to move into the area in strength. Willie Whitelaw told me after his visits to Manchester and Liverpool that the Moss Side riots had taken the form of looting and hooliganism rather than direct confrontation with the police. In Liverpool, as I was to learn, racial tension and