Drunkard's Walk - Leonard Mlodinow [116]
21. Ibid., p. 2. The story is recounted in Bill Braun, “Lawyers Seek to Overturn Rape Conviction,” Tulsa World, November 22, 1996. See also www.innocenceproject.org. (Durham was released in 1997.)
22. People v. Collins, 68 Calif. 2d 319, 438 P.2d 33, 66 Cal. Rptr. 497 (1968).
23. Thomas Lyon, private communication.
Chapter 3: Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities
1. Alan Wykes, Doctor Cardano: Physician Extraordinary (London: Frederick Muller, 1969). See also Oystein Ore, Cardano: The Gambling Scholar, with a translation of Cardano’s Book on Games of Chance by Sydney Henry Gould (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1953).
2. Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,” Parade, September 9, 1990.
3. Bruce D. Burns and Mareike Wieth, “Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma,” in Proceedings of the Twenty-fifth Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. R. Alterman and D. Kirsh (Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2003), p. 198.
4. National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators—2002 (Arlington, Va.: National Science Foundation, 2002); http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/. See vol. 2, chap. 7, table 7-10.
5. Gary P. Posner, “Nation’s Mathematicians Guilty of Innumeracy,” Skeptical Inquirer 15, no. 4 (Summer 1991).
6. Bruce Schechter, My Brain Is Open: The Mathematical Journeys of Paul Erdös (New York: Touchstone, 1998), pp. 107–9.
7. Ibid., pp. 189–90, 196–97.
8. John Tierney, “Behind Monty’s Doors: Puzzle, Debate and Answer?” New York Times, July 21, 1991.
9. Robert S. Gottfried, The Black Death: Natural and Human Disaster in Medieval Europe (New York: Free Press, 1985).
10. Gerolamo Cardano, quoted in Wykes, Doctor Cardano, p. 18.
11. Kline, Mathematical Thought, pp. 184–85, 259–60.
12. “Oprah’s New Shape: How She Got It,” O, the Oprah Magazine, January 2003.
13. Lorraine J. Daston, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1998), p. 97.
14. Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,” Parade, March 3, 1996, p. 14.
15. There are four tires on the car, so, letting RF signify “right front,” and so on, there are 16 possible combinations of responses by the two students. If the first response listed represents that of student 1 and the second that of student 2, the possible joint responses are (RF, RF), (RF, LF), (RF, RR), (RF, LR), (LF, RF), (LF, LF), (LF, RR), (LF, LR), (RR, RF), (RR, LF), (RR, RR), (RR, LR), (LR, RF), (LR, LF), (LR, RR), (LR, LR). Of these 16, 4 are in agreement: (RF, RF), (LF, LF), (RR, RR), (LR, LR). Hence the chances are 4 out of 16, or 1 in 4.
16. Martin Gardner, “Mathematical Games,” Scientific American, October 1959, pp. 180–82.
17. Jerome Cardan, The Book of My Life: De Vita Propia Liber, trans. Jean Stoner (Whitefish, Mont.: Kessinger, 2004), p. 35.
18. Cardano, quoted in Wykes, Doctor Cardano, p. 57.
19. Cardano, quoted ibid.
20. Cardano, quoted ibid., p. 172.
Chapter 4: Tracking the Pathways to Success
1. Bengt Ankarloo and Stuart Clark, eds., Witchcraft and Magic in Europe: The Period of the Witch Trials (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2002), pp. 99–104.
2. Meghan Collins, “Traders Ward Off Evil Spirits,” October 31, 2003, http://www.CNNMoney.com/2003/10/28/markets_trader_superstition/index.htm.
3. Henk Tijms, Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 16.
4. Ibid., p. 80.
5. David, Gods, Games and Gambling, p. 65.
6. Blaise Pascal, quoted in Jean Steinmann, Pascal, trans. Martin Turnell (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1962), p. 72.
7. Gilberte Pascal, quoted in Morris Bishop, Pascal: The Life of a Genius (1936; repr., New York: Greenwood Press, 1968), p. 47.
8. Ibid., p. 137.
9. Gilberte Pascal, quoted ibid., p. 135.
10. See A.W.F. Edwards, Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle: The Story of a Mathematical Idea (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).
11. Blaise Pascal, quoted in Herbert