Drunkard's Walk - Leonard Mlodinow [119]
11. University of Texas, Office of Admissions, “Inter-rater Reliability of Holistic Measures Used in the Freshman Admissions Process of the University of Texas at Austin,” February 22, 2005; http://www.utexas.edu/student/admissions/research/Inter-raterReliability2005.pdf.
12. Emily J. Shaw and Glenn B. Milewski, “Consistency and Reliability in the Individualized Review of College Applicants,” College Board, Office of Research and Development, Research Notes RN-20 (October 2004): 3; http://www.collegeboard.com/research/pdf/RN-20.pdf.
13. Gary Rivlin, “In Vino Veritas,” New York Times, August 13, 2006.
14. William James, The Principles of Psychology (New York: Henry Holt, 1890), p. 509.
15. Robert Frank and Jennifer Byram, “Taste-Smell Interactions Are Tastant and Odorant Dependent,” Chemical Senses 13 (1988): 445–55.
16. A. Rapp, “Natural Flavours of Wine: Correlation between Instrumental Analysis and Sensory Perception,” Fresenius’ Journal of Analytic Chemistry 337, no. 7 (January 1990): 777–85.
17. D. Laing and W. Francis, “The Capacity of Humans to Identify Odors in Mixtures,” Physiology and Behavior 46, no. 5 (November 1989): 809–14; and D. Laing et al., “The Limited Capacity of Humans to Identify the Components of Taste Mixtures and Taste-Odour Mixtures,” Perception 31, no. 5 (2002): 617–35.
18. For the rosé study, see Rose M. Pangborn, Harold W. Berg, and Brenda Hansen, “The Influence of Color on Discrimination of Sweetness in Dry Table-Wine,” American Journal of Psychology 76, no. 3 (September 1963): 492–95. For the anthocyanin study, see G. Morrot, F. Brochet, and D. Dubourdieu, “The Color of Odors,” Brain and Language 79, no. 2 (November 2001): 309–20.
19. Hilke Plassman, John O’Doherty, Baba Shia, and Antonio Rongel, “Marketing Actions Can Modulate Neural Representations of Experienced Pleasantness,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 14, 2008; http://www.pnas.org.
20. M. E. Woolfolk, W. Castellan, and C. Brooks, “Pepsi versus Coke: Labels, Not Tastes, Prevail,” Psychological Reports 52 (1983): 185–86.
21. M. Bende and S. Nordin, “Perceptual Learning in Olfaction: Professional Wine Tasters Versus Controls,” Physiology and Behavior 62, no. 5 (November 1997): 1065–70.
22. Gregg E. A. Solomon, “Psychology of Novice and Expert Wine Talk,” American Journal of Psychology 103, no. 4 (Winter 1990): 495–517.
23. Rivlin, “In Vino Veritas.”
24. Ibid.
25. Hal Stern, “On the Probability of Winning a Football Game,” American Statistician 45, no. 3 (August 1991): 179–82.
26. The graph is from Index Funds Advisors, “Index Funds.com: Take the Risk Capacity Survey,” http://www.indexfunds3.com/step3page2.php, where it is credited to Walter Good and Roy Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1997). The performance of 300 mutual fund managers was tabulated for ten years (1987–1996), based on the Morningstar Principia database.
27. Polling Report, “President Bush—Overall Job Rating,” http://pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm.
28. “Poll: Bush Apparently Gets Modest Bounce,” CNN, September 8, 2004, http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.htm.
29. “Harold von Braunhut,” Telegraph, December 23, 2003; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/12/24/db2403.xml.
30. James J. Fogarty, “Why Is Expert Opinion on Wine Valueless?” (discussion paper 02.17, Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, 2001).
31. Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 143.
Chapter 8: The Order in Chaos
1. Holland, What Are the Chances? p. 51.
2. This is only an approximation, based on more recent American statistics. See U.S. Social Security Administration, “Actuarial Publications: Period Life Table.” The most recent table is available at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.htm.
3. Immanuel Kant, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical