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31. Deborah J. Bennett, Randomness (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998), p. 123.

32. Abraham Pais, The Science and Life of Albert Einstein (London: Oxford University Press, 1982), p. 17; see also the discussion on p. 89.

33. On Brown and the history of Brownian motion, see D. J. Mabberley, Jupiter Botanicus: Robert Brown of the British Museum (Braunschweig, Germany, and London: Verlag von J. Cramer / Natural History Museum, 1985); Brian J. Ford, “Brownian Movement in Clarkia Pollen: A Reprise of the First Observations,” Microscope 40, no. 4 (1992): 235–41; and Stephen Brush, “A History of Random Processes. I. Brownian Movement from Brown to Perrin,” Archive for History of Exact Sciences 5, no. 34 (1968).

34. Pais, Albert Einstein, pp. 88–100.

35. Albert Einstein, quoted in Ronald William Clark, Einstein: The Life and Times (New York: HarperCollins, 1984), p. 77.

Chapter 9: Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion

1. See Arthur Conan Doyle, The History of Spiritualism (New York: G. H. Doran, 1926); and R. L. Moore, In Search of White Crows: Spiritualism, Parapsychology, and American Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1977).

2. Ray Hyman, “Parapsychological Research: A Tutorial Review and Critical Appraisal,” Proceedings of the IEEE 74, no. 6 (June 1986): 823–49.

3. Michael Faraday, “Experimental Investigation of Table-Moving,” Athenaeum, July 2, 1853, pp. 801–3.

4. Michael Faraday, quoted in Hyman, “Parapsychological Research,” p. 826.

5. Faraday, quoted ibid.

6. See Frank H. Durgin, “The Tinkerbell Effect: Motion Perception and Illusion,” Journal of Consciousness Studies 9, nos. 5–6 (May–June 2002): 88–101.

7. Christof Koch, The Quest for Consciousness: A Neurobiological Approach (Englewood, Colo.: Roberts, 2004), pp. 51–54.

8. The study was D. O. Clegg et al., “Glucosamine, Chondroitin Sulfate, and the Two in Combination for Painful Knee Osteoarthritis,” New England Journal of Medicine 354, no. 8 (February 2006): 795–808. The interview was “Slate’s Medical Examiner: Doubts on Supplements,” Day to Day, NPR broadcast, March 13, 2006.

9. See Paul Slovic, Howard Kunreuther, and Gilbert F. White, “Decision Processes, Rationality, and Adjustment to Natural Hazards,” in Natural Hazards: Local, National, and Global, ed. G. F. White (London: Oxford University Press, 1974); see also Willem A. Wagenaar, “Generation of Random Sequences by Human Subjects: A Critical Survey of Literature,” Psychological Bulletin 77, no. 1 (January 1972): 65–72.

10. See Hastie and Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, pp. 19–23.

11. George Spencer-Brown, Probability and Scientific Inference (London: Longmans, Green, 1957), pp. 55–56. Actually, 10 is a gross underestimate.

12. Janet Maslin, “His Heart Belongs to (Adorable) iPod,” New York Times, October 19, 2006.

13. Hans Reichenbach, The Theory of Probability, trans. E. Hutton and M. Reichenbach (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1934).

14. The classic text expounding this point of view is Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now completely revised in an updated 8th ed. (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003).

15. John R. Nofsinger, Investment Blunders of the Rich and Famous—and What You Can Learn from Them (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Financial Times, 2002), p. 62.

16. Hemang Desai and Prem C. Jain, “An Analysis of the Recommendations of the ‘Superstar’ Money Managers at Barron’s Annual Roundtable,” Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995): 1257–73.

17. Jess Beltz and Robert Jennings, “Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser’s Recommendations: Trading Activity and Performance,” Review of Financial Economics 6, no. 1 (1997): 15–27; and Robert A. Pari, “Wall $treet Week Recommendations: Yes or No?” Journal of Portfolio Management 14, no. 1 (1987): 74–76.

18. Andrew Metrick, “Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters, Journal of Finance 54, no. 5 (October 1999): 1743–75; and “The Equity Performance of