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———. 2007. “Simplicity and Probability in Causal Explanation.” Cognitive Psychology 55 (3):232–57.

Lowenstein, Roger, 2000. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.

Lukes, Steven. 1968. “Methodological Individualism Reconsidered.” British Journal of Sociology 19 (2):119–29.

Luo, Michael. 2004. “ ‘Excuse Me. May I Have Your Seat?’ ” New York Times, Sept. 14.

Lyons, Russell. 2010. “The Spread of Evidence-Poor Medicine via Flawed Social-Network Analysis.” Working paper, Indiana University.

Mackay, Charles. 1932. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Boston: L.C. Page & Company.

Makridakis, Spyros, and Michele Hibon. 2000. “The M3-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications.” International Journal of Forecasting 16:451–76.

Makridakis, Spyros, Michele Hibon, and Claus Moser. 1979. “Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 142 (2):97–145.

Makridakis, Spyros, Robin M. Hogarth, and Anil Gaba. 2009a. Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You. Chino Valley, AZ: One World Press.

———. 2009b. “Forecasting and Uncertainty in the Economic and Business World.” International Journal of Forecasting 25(4), 794–812.

Malmgren, R. Dean, Jacob M. Hofman, Luis A. N. Amaral, and Duncan J. Watts. 2009. “Characterizing Individual Communication Patterns.” 15th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, at Paris, pp. 607–16. ACM Press.

Mandel, Naomi, and Eric J. Johnson. 2002. “When Web Pages Influence Choice: Effects of Visual Primes on Experts and Novices.” Journal of Consumer Research 29 (2):235–45.

Marcus, Gary. 2008. Kluge: The Haphazard Construction of the Human Mind. New York: Houghton Mifflin.

Marra, Alexandre, R. Luciana Reis Guastelli, Carla Manuela Pereira de Araújo. 2010. “Positive Deviance: A New Strategy for Improving Hand Hygiene Compliance.” Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 31 (1):12–20.

Marsh, David R., Dirk G. Schroeder, Kirk A. Dearden, et al. 2004. “The Power of Positive Deviance.” British Medical Journal 329 (7475):1177.

Mason, Winter A., and Duncan J. Watts. 2009. “Financial Incentives and the Performance of Crowds.” Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Human Computation, 77–85.

Masuda, Naoki, Norio Konno, and Kazuyuki Aihara. 2004. “Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Dynamical Small-World Networks.” Physical Review E 69 (3): 03197.

Mathisen, James A. 1989. “A Further Look at ‘Common Sense’ in Introductory Sociology.” Teaching Sociology 17 (3):307–15.

Mauboussin, Michael J. 2006. More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. New York: Columbia University Press.

———. 2009. Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Mayhew, Bruce H. 1980. “Structuralism Versus Individualism: Part 1, Shadowboxing in the Dark.” Social Forces 59 (2):335–75.

McCormick, Tyler, Matthew J. Salganik, and Tian Zheng. 2008. “How Many People Do You Know? Efficiently Estimating Personal Network Size.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:59–70.

McCotter, Trent. 2008. “Hitting Streaks Don’t Obey Your Rules.” New York Times, March 30.

McDonald, Ian. 2005. “Bill Miller Dishes on His Streak and His Strategy.” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 6.

McDonald, Lawrence G., and Patrick Robinson. 2009. A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. New York: Crown Business.

McFadden, Daniel. 1999. “Rationality for Economists?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19 (1–3):73–105.

McPherson, Miller J., and Lynn Smith-Lovin. 1987. “Homophily in Voluntary Organizations: Status Distance and the Composition of Face-to-Face Groups.” American Sociological Review 52:370–79.

McPherson, Miller, Lynn Smith-Lovin, and James M. Cook. 2001. “Birds of a Feather: Homophily in Social Networks.” Annual Review of Sociology 27:415–44.

Mearian, Lucas 2009. “CDC Adopts