Fifty Degrees Below - Kim Stanley Robinson [139]
“We four handle well over half of the total premium volume in re-insurance,” the Swiss Re CEO told Diane and the rest. “Ours is a specialized function, and so we are going to need help. Already we are stretched to the limit, and this winter is going very badly in Europe, as you know. And here too of course. The destruction is really severe. Food shortages will come very quickly if winters become like this regularly. We are having to raise premiums immediately, just to make this first round of payouts. Re-insurance is just one part of a distributed load, but in a situation like this, essentially unprecedented, re-insurance is caught at the end of the stick. This may be the last payout that re-insurance will be able to afford to make. After that the system will be overwhelmed, and then there will have to be a bailout by governments.”
So naturally they were interested in mitigation possibilities; and they had heard at the UN that the most advanced work in the U.S. was being done here at NSF. Diane agreed that this was so, and told them about the North Atlantic project they were evaluating. It turned out they had been discussing the same idea among themselves; all over Europe people hoped it might be possible to “restart the Gulf Stream,” because otherwise European food self-sufficiency was in danger.
The GenRe nat cat expert suggested that surfactants might be spread on the ocean surface to increase evaporation, which would thereby increase the salinity on the surface.
“Take away water instead of just adding salt,” Diane said, looking over at Frank. “That’s good. We’ve been coming up with some pretty high values for the amount of salt likely to be needed.”
They punched up the PowerPoint slides and ran through the isopycnal tables, each curve on the graph suggestive of the slide of cold salty water, down the isopycnal surface to the sea floor.
The cold winter they were now experiencing might also help this plan to restart the circulation, the nat cat expert pointed out. The Arctic sea ice might bulk up to a thickness that wouldn’t break up and drift south when spring came. Surface temperatures would then drop in the fall as they always did, and if they had gotten a fleet loaded with salt, and into position . . . clouds might also be seeded to the west, to keep precipitation out of the region as much as possible. . . .
Everyone seemed to agree they were onto something. Diane explained that the UN was aware of the plan, and approved it in principle; the remaining problems were likely to be financial and logistical, and perhaps political within the United States.
But maybe the United States was not a make-or-break participant, the Europeans seemed to be suggesting. Neither Diane nor Frank had ever entertained that notion before, but as the Europeans talked about finances, it became an implication too clear to miss, and Frank and Diane exchanged the blank glance that had replaced raised eyebrows between them to express discreet surprise. “We insure each other,” one of them said. “We keep a kind of emergency fund available.”
“This is not actually very expensive, compared to some projects we have been contemplating.”
Wow, Frank said to Diane with another blank look.
HE WAS READING IN HIS SLEEPING bag when his cell phone rang and he snatched it up.
“Frank, it’s Caroline.”
“Oh good.”
“Are you all right?”
“I’m all right. I broke my nose, it’s all stuffed up.”
“Oh no, what happened?”
“I’ll tell you about it when we meet.”
“Okay good. Can you meet?”
“Of course. I have two black eyes.”
“That’s okay. Listen, can we meet at your place