Inside Cyber Warfare - Jeffrey Carr [106]
Although terms have been created and defined, a cohesive strategy on cyber warfare that addresses where, when, and how it is to be implemented remains elusive. One reason for that is the fact that it is highly classified. Another is that it is still being developed.
There are numerous problems that confront the military planners who are attempting to create this doctrine, not the least of which is attribution and deterrence. How should the United States respond to a cyber attack against its networks if it cannot unequivocally prove attribution? How can a deterrence policy be effective if opposing states know that their cyber activities can be conducted anonymously?
Another problematic area is the longstanding US policy of domain dominance, which basically says that the United States will control air, land, sea, and space to such an extent that it will have freedom of access to each, as well as the ability to deny access to each to its opponents. Cyberspace, as a global electronic medium, cannot be dominated or controlled by any one nation.
Then there is the expectation that rules of engagement (ROEs) will apply to cyber warfare. Some of the issues surrounding ROEs were made clear in a recent National Academy of Sciences report titled “Technology, Policy, Law and Ethics Regarding US Acquisition and Use of Cyber Attack Capabilities”:
When to execute a cyber attack
What are the circumstances under which a cyber attack might be authorized?
Scope of a cyber attack
What are the entities that may be targeted?
Duration of a cyber attack
How long should a cyber attack last?
Notifications
Who must be informed if a cyber attack is conducted?
Authority for exceptions
What level of authority is needed to grant an exception for standing ROEs?
The Obama Administration will be making significant headway in these areas through 2012, but it is too early to expect any answers to these hard challenges to be forthcoming before the publication of this book.
Chapter 12. A Cyber Early Warning Model
By Ned Moran[39]
The Challenge We Face
The United States currently faces the daunting challenge of identifying the actors responsible for launching politically motivated cyber attacks. According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the United States is “under cyber attack virtually all the time, every day.” It is estimated that more than 140 countries currently field cyber warfare capabilities. Additionally, sophisticated adversaries can route attacks through proxies and obfuscate their identities. These facts combine to make attribution of cyber attacks a difficult challenge.
During the Cold War, none of these challenges existed. Attacks between the United States and rival powers were few and far between. The pool of nuclear powers was limited to an exclusive club. Additionally, it was more difficult to route a nuclear attack through a proxy.
The heightened ability to detect and identify the source of nuclear or missile attack increased stability during the Cold War. Many policymakers fear that the current inability to quickly and accurately identify the source of a cyber attack leads to instability and increases the chances that cyber attacks will be carried out. In order to improve its defensive posture, the United States must develop a cyber attack early warning system.
Cyber Early Warning Networks
Although a number of private companies and nonprofit organizations have constructed a cyber infrastructure designed to detect cyber attacks, these infrastructures do little to provide adequate early warning for a politically motivated cyber attack.
Additional technical solutions will not adequately solve the problem of building an early warning capability for detecting politically motivated cyber attacks. Instead, a fresh analytical framework is needed. This framework will help limit the pool of possible aggressors and allow policymakers to marry whatever technical evidence can be gathered during a cyber attack with a list of possible aggressors.