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are derived from this byplay. First, war or warlike situations—especially those that may be inconclusive—tend to increase the overall tension, as can be easily understood. Second, in such circumstances both parties can forget the nature of their relationship, although this is probably a greater problem for the policy makers. The combination of uncertainty and casualties, with the attendant political costs, raise the policy makers’ anxiety. Third, the leadership of the intelligence community understands that it can never win this sort of struggle with policy makers and therefore will seek to avoid such confrontations. The professional ethos and training of senior intelligence officials work to preclude such an outcome. Even if their analyses prove to be correct, the costs to their relationship with senior policy officials would be so great as to result in a Pyrrhic victory. This does not mean that analysts should temper their views or to hedge what they write but that intelligence officers are unlikely to engage in gratuitous and overt hostility to policy makers.

Finally, the policy makers’ expectation of support from the permanent bureaucracy extends to the intelligence community. But they may be seeking intelligence that supports known policy preferences, thus running the risk of politicization. Politicization can also work in the other direction. The intelligence officer’s desire to be listened to (Kent’s second wish) may lead to analysis that is meant to please the policy makers, either consciously or unwttingly. In either case, the desire for a good working relationship can directly undermine the desired objectivity of intelligence. This aspect of the relationship has probably been exacerbated by the increasing practice of Congress levying requests for national intelligence estimates (NIEs) that are essentially progress reports on the war on terror or the situation in Iraq and then also requiring that the Key Judgments (KJs) of these NIEs be declassified and published. Congress is entirely within its right to request NIEs, although these progress report estimates do appear to have political agendas behind them. Publication of the KJs certainly increases the likelihood that the estimates will be used by one or both sides in the political debate. It also increases the likelihood that either the president or Congress or both will assume that unpalatable judgments were written to please opponents in the debate. In October 2007, DNI Mike McConnell decided that NIEs would not be made public any longer because of his concerns about the effect this had on the quality of the analysis. However, as noted, he reversed this decision seven weeks later in the case of the Iran nuclear NIE and allowed the KJs to be published in declassified form.

THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS: POLICY AND INTELLIGENCE

The differences between the policy and intelligence communities—and the potential for tension—appear at each stage of the intelligence process.

REQUIREMENTS. Requirements are not abstract concepts. They are the policy makers’ agenda. All policy makers have certain areas on which they must concentrate as well as others on which they would like to concentrate. Some areas are of little or no interest to them but require their attention either occasionally or regularly. This mixture of preferences is important in forming the agenda and thus the requirements. For example, Secretary of State James A. Baker III ( 1989-1992) was clear, on taking office, that he was not going to spend a lot of time on the Middle East. His decision was not based on a view that the region was unimportant but that he was unlikely to achieve much in the Middle East and therefore his time would be better spent elsewhere. Senior subordinates could handle the Middle East. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait undermined his choice. Ironically, the war also helped lead to the Madrid conference—presided over by Secretary Baker—at which Israel and its Arab foes met together for the first time.

The intelligence community wants guidance on the priorities of the agenda so that