Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [49]
Figure 4-2 The Intelligence Process: A Central Intelligence Agency View
Source: Central Intelligence Agency. A Consumer’s Handbook to Intelligence (Langley, Va.: Central Intelligence Agency; 1993).
Figure 4-3 The Intelligence Process: A Schematic
A more realistic diagram would show that at any stage in the process it is possible—and sometimes necessary—to go back to an earlier step. Initial collection may prove unsatisfactory and may lead policy makers to change the requirements; processing and exploitation or analysis may reveal gaps, resulting in new collection requirements; consumers may change their needs or ask for more intelligence. And, on occasion, intelligence officers may receive feedback.
This admittedly imperfect process can be portrayed as in Figure 4-3. This diagram, although better than the CIA’s, remains somewhat unidimensional. A still better portrayal would capture the more than occasional need to go back to an earlier part of the process to meet unfulfilled or changing requirements, collection needs, and so on.
Figure 4-4 shows how in any one intelligence process issues likely arise (the need for more collection, uncertainties in processing, results of analysis, changing requirements) that cause a second or even third intelligence process to take place. Ultimately, one could repeat the process lines over and over to portray continuing changes in any of the various parts of the process and the fact that policy issues are rarely resolved in a single neat cycle. This diagram is a bit more complex, and it gives a much better sense of how the intelligence process operates in reality. being linear, circular, and open-ended all at the same time.
Figure 4-4 The Intelligence Process: Multilayered
KEY TERMS
ad hocs
analysis and production
collection
consumption
dissemination
downstream activities
feedback
footnote wars
priority creep
processing and exploitation
requirements
tyranny of the ad hocs
FURTHER READINGS
The intelligence process in the United States has become so routinized in its basic steps and forms that it is not often written about analytically as an organic whole. These readings are among the few that attempt to examine the process on some broader basis.
Central Intelligence Agency. A Consumer’s Handbook to Intelligence. Langley, Va.: CIA, 1993.
Johnson, Loch. “Decision Costs in the Intelligence Cycle.” In Intelligence: Policy and Process. Ed. Alfred C. Maurer and others. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1985.
—. “Making the Intelligence ‘Cycle’ Work.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 1 (winter 1986-1987): 1-23.
Krizan, Liza. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. Joint Military Intelligence College, Occasional Paper No. 6. Washington. D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1999.
CHAPTER 5
COLLECTION AND THE COLLECTION DISCIPLINES
COLLECTION IS THE bedrock of intelligence. Intelligence collection has been written about since the biblical references to spies in Numbers, 13-14 and the Book of Joshua. Without collection, intelligence is little more than guesswork—perhaps educated guesswork, but guesswork nonetheless. The United States and several other nations use multiple means of collecting the intelligence they require. The means are driven by two factors: the nature of the intelligence being sought and the ability to acquire it in various ways. In the United States the means of collecting intelligence are sometimes referred to as collection disciplines or INTs. This chapter discusses the overarching themes that affect all means of collection, then addresses what the various INTs provide as well as their strengths