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commercial applications. Much of the U.S. military advantage, the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), depends on accurate, timely intelligence being fed to U.S. forces on a continuous basis. Although no state is likely to be able to compete with the United States militarily for some time to come, U.S. forces could be hobbled by attacks on satellite systems. That is why the Chinese ASAT test on January 11, 2007, in which they destroyed an old weather satellite, raised concerns in the United States and among U.S. allies. According to press accounts, U.S. intelligence had discovered indications of the ASAT preparations but the Bush administration chose not to say anything until after the test, although it is not clear that a U.S. intervention would have led to the test’s cancellation. There have also been press reports alleging that China has fired lasers in an effort to disable U.S. satellites when they pass over China.

There are few available remedies to a hostile ASAT capability. There are no alternatives to the roles played by satellites. Hardening satellites to enable them to withstand attack is difficult and makes them that much heavier, requiring a trade-off against collection payloads. It would be possible to build additional reserve satellites that could be launched if existing ones were disabled, but this requires an additional large investment. Even with additional satellites, there would be periods in which the lost capability could not be replaced immediately if weather or technical issues delayed a launch—again assuming that the reserve satellites were loaded on a rocket and placed on a launch pad, ready to go (an eventuality that raises maintenance and reliability questions). The U.S. Air Force is looking at the possible creation of minisatellites that could navigate autonomously and be used to inspect satellites or spacecraft for damage. This program could be useful in the event of an ASAT attack or presumed ASAT attack. Critics have argued that these satellites could also be used to disable hostile satellites.

Some might argue that an ASAT attack would be an act of war. However, even if one were able to determine who had conducted the ASAT attack, the attack itself would limit the ability to command, control, and target a military retaliation.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Each of the collection disciplines has strengths and weaknesses. But when evaluating them—especially the weaknesses—it is important to remember that the goal of intelligence is to involve as many collection disciplines as possible on the major issues. This should allow the collectors to gain advantages from mutual reinforcement and from individual capabilities that can compensate for shortcomings in the others.

GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE. GEOINT is a collection discipline that used to be called imagery or IMINT, also referred to as PHOTINT (photo intelligence). It is a direct descendant of the brief practice of sending soldiers up in balloons during the U.S. Civil War (1861-1865). In World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945), both sides used airplanes to obtain photos. Airplanes are still employed, but several nations now use imagery satellites. NGA (which until 2003 was the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, NIMA) has overall responsibility for GEOINT, including processing and exploitation. Some imagery also comes via DOD’s airborne systems, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. Handheld cameras also are considered part of imagery collection.

NGA defines GEOINT as “information about any object—natural or man-made—that can be observed or referenced to the Earth, and has national security implications.” For example, an image of a city includes natural objects (rivers, lakes, and so on) and man-made objects (buildings, roads, bridges, and so on) and can have overlaid on it utility lines, transport lines, and so on. It may also include terrain or geodetic data. Thus, a more complete picture is drawn that may be of greater intelligence value.

The term imagery is somewhat misleading in that it is generally