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By Root 556 0

WMD Commission, reporting in March 2005, recommended the creation of mission managers to “ensure a strategic, Community-level focus on priority intelligence missions.” The commission envisioned these managers overseeing both collection and analysis on a given issue, as well as fostering alternative analyses on their issue. However, the mission mangers would not conduct actual analysis; rather, they would facilitate analysis. (An exception was made for counterintelligence, whose mission manager would conduct strategic counterintelligence analysis.) The commission also posited that the mission managers offered a more flexible approach than the centers. The commission recommended that mission managers oversee target development and research and development for their issues.

As of mid-2008, there were six mission managers, covering North Korea, Iran, Cuba/ Venezuela, counterterrorism, counterintelligence and counterproliferation. Interestingly, the three “counter” mission managers were also the directors of DNI centers. The mission manager concept raises several issues. First, and most obvious, is their authority to target collection or facilitate analysis. These activities occur in the various intelligence agencies, where the DNI faces very real limits to his or her authority, as did the DCI. Second, it is exceedingly difficult for managers to maintain awareness of all of the analysis being produced on certain issues, although this is also being addressed within the DNI’s office. The mission managers must also have knowledge of the analysts working on an issue across the community. Here the DNI has benefited from the Analytic Resources Catalog (ARC), a listing of all analysts and their subject area and past expertise, which was created under DCI Tenet.

Ultimately, there is no best way to organize analysts. Each scheme has distinct advantages and disadvantages. And each scheme still revolves around either functional or regional analysts. The goal should be to ensure that the right analysts of both types are brought to bear on topics as needed—either on a permanent or temporary basis, depending on the issue and its importance. Flexibility and agility remain crucial. (See box, “Metaphors for Thinking about Analysis.”)

METAPHORS FOR THINKING ABOUT ANALYSIS

Metaphors are often used to describe the intelligence analysis process.

Thomas Hughes, a former director of the Department of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research, wrote that intelligence analysts were either butchers or bakers. Butchers tend to cut up and dissect intelligence to determine what is happening Bakers tend to blend analysis together to get the bigger picture Analysts assume both roles at different times.

In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, the phrase “connect the dots” became prevalent as a means of describing an analytic intelligence failure. It is an inapt metaphor. Connecting the dots depends on all of the dots being present to draw the right picture. (The dots also come numbered sequentially, which helps considerably.) As a senior intelligence analyst pointed out, the intelligence community was accused of not connecting the dots in the run-up to September 11 but was accused of connecting too many dots regarding the alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction

Two more useful descriptions are mosaics or pearls. Intelligence analysis is similar to assembling a mosaic, but one in which the desired final picture may not be clear. Not all of the mosaic pieces may be available. Further complicating matters, in the course of assembling the mosaic, new pieces appear and some old ones change size, shape, and color. The pearl metaphor refers to how intelligence is collected and then analyzed. Most intelligence issues are concerns for years or even decades Like the slow growth of a pearl within an oyster, there is a steady aggregation of collected intelligence over time, allowing analysts to gain greater insight into the nature of the problem.

Why do these metaphors matter? They matter because they will affect how one views the analytical