Irrational Economist_ Making Decisions in a Dangerous World - Erwann Michel-Kerjan [0]
Title Page
Introduction
PART ONE - IRRATIONAL TIMES
Chapter 1 - Superstition
RELIGION AND SUPERSTITION
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 2 - Berserk Weather Forecasters, Beauty Contests, and Delicious Apples ...
BERSERK WEATHER FORECASTERS
THE BEAUTY CONTEST AND DELICIOUS APPLE METAPHORS
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 3 - Subways, Coconuts, and Foggy Minefields
THE FAILURE OF DECISION THEORY
TWO TYPES OF UNCERTAINTY
COMMIT ONLY AS FAR AS YOU CAN PREDICT
FROM AIRPLANES TO FOGGY MINEFIELDS
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 4 - The More Who Die, the Less We Care
BACKGROUND AND THEORY: THE IMPORTANCE OF AFFECT
FACING CATASTROPHIC LOSS OF LIFE
THE DARFUR GENOCIDE
AFFECT, ANALYSIS, AND THE VALUE OF HUMAN LIVES
THE PSYCHOPHYSICAL MODEL
THE COLLAPSE OF COMPASSION
THE FAILURE OF MORAL INTUITION
WHAT TO DO?
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 5 - Haven’t You Switched to Risk Management 2.0 Yet?
MANAGING AND FINANCING EXTREME EVENTS: A NEW ERA CALLS FOR A NEW MODEL
A NEW RISK ARCHITECTURE IS STILL TO BE DEFINED
WHY BEING SELFISH TODAY MEANS TAKING CARE OF OTHERS . . .
RECOMMENDED READING
PART TWO - ARE WE ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS? ECONOMIC MODELS AND RATIONALITY
Chapter 6 - A Two-Edged Sword
WHAT IS EXPECTED UTILITY?
NORMATIVE DEBATES
WHAT IS BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY?
LIMITS OF THE RATIONAL MODEL
A PRACTICAL CASE FOR TEENAGERS: DECISION EDUCATION FOUNDATION
IN CLOSING: A SPORTS ANALOGY
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 7 - Constructed Preference and the Quest for Rationality
WHAT CHOICES ARE WISE?
CONSTRUCTED CHOICE
RATIONALITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CONSTRUCTED CHOICE
RATIONALITY IN FLUX
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 8 - What If You Know You Will Have to Explain Your Choices to Others Afterwards?
INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING AND LEGITIMATION
LEGITIMATION AND DECISION MAKING
A CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY
WHAT TO DO?
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 9 - Neuroeconomics
THE GOAL OF NEUROECONOMICS
AN APPLICATION: EYE-TRACKING AND BACKWARD INDUCTION IN BARGAINING GAMES
WHAT CAN NEUROECONOMICS DO FOR ECONOMICS?
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 10 - The Useful Brain
SHAKING THE (IR)RATIONALITY TREE: WELCOME TO “EMO-RATIONALITY”
THE CURIOUS CASE OF PHINEAS GAGE
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE MARRIAGE OF ECONOMICS AND NEUROSCIENCE?
FROM LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS TO DECISIONS IN EVERYDAY LIFE
NEUROECONOMICS AND BEYOND
RECOMMENDED READING
PART THREE - INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS IN A DANGEROUS AND UNCERTAIN WORLD
Chapter 11 - Virgin Versus Experienced Risks
INTRODUCTION
THE INABILITY TO USE BAYESIAN UPDATING IN EVERYDAY PRACTICE
UPDATING AS A FUNCTION OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE AND PREVIOUS CONTEMPLATION
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 12 - How Do We Manage an Uncertain Future?
AMBIGUOUS CHOICES
ATTITUDES TOWARD AMBIGUITY
AMBIGUITY AND THE FUTURE
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 14 - Dreadful Possibilities, Neglected Probabilities
DEMONSTRATING PROBABILITY NEGLECT
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 15 - Why We Still Fail to Learn from Disasters
WHEN GOOD DECISION PROCESSES PRODUCE BAD CONSEQUENCES
THE COMPOUNDING ROLE OF POOR MENTAL MODELS
THE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE EFFECTS OF KNOWLEDGE
THE AGENCY PROBLEM
POSTSCRIPT: CAN LEARNING BE IMPROVED?
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 16 - Dumb Decisions or as Smart as the Average Politician?
INTRODUCTION
AVERSION TO DEDUCTIBLES
CONSUMER WARRANTIES
THE NONPOOR HEALTH UNINSURED
INSURANCE AND A TRANQUIL LIFE
CONCLUSION: WHEN RATIONAL AND BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING COMPLEMENT EACH OTHER
RECOMMENDED READING
Chapter 17 - The Hold-Up Problem
THE CASE OF FLOOD INSURANCE DECISIONS
BEHAVIORAL CONSIDERATIONS
WHY WAS NEW ORLEANS, STILL HIGHLY EXPOSED TO FUTURE HURRICANES, REBUILT IN THE ...
THE HOLD-UP PROBLEM
POLICIES TO FOSTER ADEQUATE SELF-PROTECTION AND INSURANCE
RECOMMENDED READING
PART FOUR - MANAGING AND FINANCING EXTREME EVENTS
Chapter 18 - The Peculiar Politics of American Disaster Policy
A BRIEF HISTORY OF FEDERAL DISASTER RELIEF
RELIEF OVER INSURANCE: A PROBLEM OF CONCENTRATED