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to move from a state of nature where there is no investment in self-protection to one with full investment by persuading a subset of individuals or companies to change their behaviors—the tipping subset. This can be done through proper economic incentives or some type of requirements. Sometimes it may be in their interest to do so. In other cases, they may need an outside incentive to change strategy. Leadership, either through trade associations or through a small group of influential organizations, may convince others of the need to adopt adequate risk management measures. They have to persuade only the members of the tipping subset to change, rather than everyone. This was done in the aftermath of the Anthrax crisis with the creation of a global information sharing platform among more than twenty countries. It was launched so that executives could exchange information about the solutions each country was implementing and work out a concerted strategy to deal with future global threats (see Lagadec, Michel-Kerjan, and Ellis, 2006).

Feature 4: Change in Scale from Local to Global Risks

One consequence of these increasing interdependencies is that disasters and crises are likely to affect greater and greater numbers of people. Dealing with large-scale disasters is much more challenging than dealing with a series of local small accidents. Many do not appreciate the radical difference. The resources and simultaneous collaborative efforts required are not simply cumulative but exponential. Critical to these efforts are global response, global reaction capacity, and multinational coordination. Another important consideration is the fact that information is shared on a larger scale and among a greater number of stakeholders whose actions are ultimately likely to affect the output. Finally, psychological factors make it difficult to appreciate large-scale threats and damages, as Paul Slovic explained in the previous chapter.

Feature 5: Celerity—Toward a Just-in-Time Society

The development of rapid transportation and cheap communication has created a “just-in-time” society. People and products are moving faster and faster from one part of the globe to the other. While this trend provides a wide range of positive returns, there is also a flip side: Risks are more likely to spread very rapidly. Thanks to jet travel, for instance, a pandemic starting in Asia today can quickly spread worldwide. The just-in-time society also puts pressure on us to make decisions more quickly than before, without necessarily taking the time to adequately measure the possible effects these actions will have on others in the long run.

Feature 6: Uncertainty, If Not Ignorance

A lot of research has been devoted in past decades to decision making under uncertainty; many of the pioneers in this field are contributors to this book. The question of uncertainty will likely become even more central in the near future. Indeed, this feature and the five detailed above create an environment in which assessing risks becomes more difficult than ever before. Most of us were trained to solve problems with clear questions and clear scientific knowledge. Knowing the risk profile, we made investment decisions. But historic data do not shape the future anymore, given how rapidly the world is changing. We move from risk to uncertainty, if not to dynamic uncertainty or even pure ignorance.

WHY BEING SELFISH TODAY MEANS TAKING CARE OF OTHERS . . .

Although the framework represented by these six complementary features is somewhat simplified, it can be used to further discussion of a large number of recent untoward events witnessed in various industries and parts of the world. Understanding this framework should also help clarify avenues for finding remedies to disasters and crises as they continue to unfold at an accelerating rate.

How we will behave as individuals in this new era is still to be seen. But history has shown that new world leaders emerge from crises when they have ideas that can (and will) reshape the future. A world with many more catastrophes