It's Not Luck - Eliyahu M. Goldratt [44]
Most new outlets and most new/improved products eat into the sales of existing outlets/products.
A large percent of the existing sales force lacks sufficient sales skills.
Salespeople are overloaded.
Production and distribution do not improve fast/significantly enough.
Engineering is unable to deliver new products fast and reliably enough.
Companies don’t come up with sufficient innovative ideas in marketing.
15
“The next step,” I confidently say, “is to find a cause and effect relationship between at least two of the undesirable effects that we listed.” I wish I were as confident as I sound, but at least I remember the next step.
“Does it matter which two?” Jim asks.
“No. Not like in other methods, prioritizing the undesirable effects is not part of the process.”
“That’s good,” he says. “Brandon and I would never agree which of the undesirable effects is more devastating. By the way, saying undesirable-effects is quite a mouthful, wouldn’t it be easier to call them problems?”
“I prefer to call UnDesirable Effects, UDEs, like cooties. Somehow it describes them better.”
They smile politely and bend over the list.
I am in trouble. It’s not a matter of remembering the steps, I think I remember all of them. It’s a matter of meticulously performing them. It’s very difficult to convert intuition into precise verbalization. I’ve never succeeded in constructing a Current Reality Tree without going through a long period of floundering. Now I have to do it under the scrutiny of Trumann and Doughty. I hope that they will be patient, otherwise I’ll come out looking like a complete fool. In any event, trying to construct a Current Reality Tree in front of them is not the best way to impress them—and impress them I must.
“How should we do it?” Brandon asks.
“How should you do what?”
“How are we supposed to go about finding a cause and effect relationship between two undesirable effects?”
“Just review the list and use your intuition. Connections will jump into your mind.”
Then it dawns on me. I’m saved. They are willing to do the job; I’ll be the teacher. This way any floundering will appear to be theirs, not mine. Up to a point, that is. As long as they still feel they are making some progress, that they are not just aimlessly floundering.
“God help me,” I whisper, and dive into my new role. “Well, did either of you find at least two undesirable effects, UDEs, that you can connect?”
“Yes, more than one pair,” Brandon says.
“So, what’s the problem? Give it to me.”
“I don’t feel really comfortable with any connection. It’s too riffraff,” he says.
I know the feeling very well. You examine the list and many connections pop up in your mind. You try to put them down on paper, and none is substantiated. But for that, Jonah taught me the categories of legitimate reservations. That means converting an intuitive connection into something so solid that everyone will refer to it as common sense.
“Don’t worry,” I say encouragingly to Brandon, “give me one pair, any pair.”
“It looks to me,” he hesitantly starts, “that the fact that ‘There is unprecedented pressure to take actions that will increase sales,’ leads to the fact that ‘There is a need to launch new products at an unprecedented rate.’ But I don’t feel comfortable with it. Not that it’s not correct, but . . .”
I take two yellow Post-it-notes. On one I write his first UDE, UDE number seven, the one about pressure to increase sales, and on the other I write his second, the one dealing with the need to launch new products. I stick them on a large piece of white paper and connect them with an arrow.
“Some clarity is needed,” I agree. “These two effects seem to be connected by a very long arrow.”
“A trans-Atlantic arrow,” Doughty laughs.
“Try to clarify the cause-effect connection by inserting an intermediate step,” I advise Brandon. When it doesn’t help, I try again. “What is the connection between pressure to increase sales and launching new products?”
“Isn’t it obvious?” he seems surprised. “Pressure to increase sales