It's Not Luck - Eliyahu M. Goldratt [47]
“The problem is,” Brandon explains to me patiently, “that according to Jim, UDE number one is the result of what we wrote, so it’s supposed to be at the top of the tree. But according to what I say, UDE number one is the cause of our starting point, and it should be at the very bottom of the tree.”
“Brandon, do you agree with Jim’s reasoning?”
He takes his time to rethink it, and then he agrees.
“Jim, do you agree with Brandon’s reasoning?”
“Yes, I do.”
“So, what is the problem? UDE number one should appear both at the top and the bottom. It’s in a loop where it feeds itself,” I calmly say.
“But if something feeds itself,” Brandon tries to digest the idea, “if there is a loop, then the effects should become bigger and bigger.”
“Precisely. Isn’t that what we see in reality? Look at the wording that we used in the UDEs: ‘unprecedented pressure,’ ‘unprecedented rate,’ ‘fiercer than ever.’ They express to what extent these effects are already ballooning. Moreover, examine the last UDE that we connected, ‘There is increasing pressure to reduce prices.’ Doesn’t it clearly imply a process that is still going on? As a matter of fact, because of the choice of words, I expected, right from the start, that a loop is involved. It’s not so rare. On the contrary, in any involved subject I have always found at least one devastating loop.”
They add the loop to the tree and reread it. It probably gives them a deeper understanding of the current situation, since before long Jim and Brandon are busy discussing the plausible outcome in the future.
I’m much slower. I’m still examining the tree. When I finish, I start again, and realize that there is an insufficiency in what they added. Competition by itself is not sufficient to cause the unprecedented pressure to increase sales. There must be an additional factor. Something to state that companies are finding it hard to compete, and most are afraid that they might slide back. I highlight it to Brandon and Jim, but they try to brush it aside as a triviality, as something that is too obvious to even be mentioned.
My experience with constructing Current Reality Trees taught me to what extent it is dangerous to brush aside these types of “trivialities.” Usually they are the ones that enable us to connect all of the UDEs to form a coherent picture. More often than not, they are also the ones that enable breakthrough solutions. My problem is that pinning down all of the apparent trivialities can also lead to paralysis. You add them, and you add them, and you forget that the purpose of all of this effort is to find a solution that can make a real difference.
Should I add it or not? I reexamine the UDE list and here is the answer to my dilemma. The additional factor I’m hesitating to add is already stated there. I take the pad of yellow post-its and start to write. I’m almost through when Jim and Brandon finish their conversation about the ramifications of the loop.
Brandon reads aloud what I am adding: “If ‘Production and distribution do not improve fast/significantly enough,’ and ‘Engineering is unable to deliver new products fast and reliably enough,’ and ‘Companies don’t come up with sufficient innovative ideas in marketing,’ then ‘Companies are not improving fast enough.’ If, ‘Companies are not improving fast enough,’ and ‘Competition is fiercer than ever,’ then ‘Companies are falling short of their stated financial targets.’ Correct.
“Here is another entry,” he continues to read, “ ‘Companies have already cut all costs they know how to cut.’ I’m not sure, but let’s see where you are going to take it. If, ‘Companies are falling short of their stated financial targets,’ and ‘Companies have already cut all costs they know how to cut,’ then ‘There is unprecedented pressure to take actions to increase sales.’ It’s on the nose. Jim, don’t you think so?”
Rather than answering, Jim says, “At the bottom of the tree, there are three UDEs, all indicating incompetence of the managers. I didn’t need the tree to tell me that this is the core problem. It was obvious to me right from the start.