It's Not Luck - Eliyahu M. Goldratt [68]
I’m not afraid of the points that Brandon raised. They are not new to us, they were all spotted in the analysis. I think we have good ways to handle them all.
Doing the analysis wasn’t easy. Constructing logical trees is not fun, not glamorous, and the high points of discovery are buried in the gray background of “if-thens.” Don and I slaved for two whole days, using Jonah’s Thinking Processes to arrive at the, now obvious, conclusions. I remember, in great detail, how it went.
20
When I arrived, Don wasn’t there yet.
So I decide not to waste any time. I drag the flip-chart from the corner and flip until I find a clean sheet. From my pocket I take out a thick pad of post-its. On one I write, “The company sells all its capacity without reducing prices.” On another, “The company has an apparent, dominant, competitive edge.” I stick them at the top of the page.
“Nice objectives, good morning,” Don greets me as he enters.
“Good morning,” I answer, and start to write another post-it.
“Coffee?” he asks.
“Yes, please,” and I stick the post-it at the bottom of the page. I read it out loud, “ ‘The company takes actions that sufficiently increase the perception of value the market has for the company’s products.’ ”
“What is it?” Don asks. “The theme of today’s analysis?”
“In a way,” I agree, and take the cup he hands me. “It’s also the injection that I got from the cloud.” When I see his expression, I add, “I know that it’s not much, but this is our starting point.”
“This is what you call a starting point?” Don is surprised. “To me it looks more like an ending.”
“Let’s say that, at this stage, it’s more like wishful thinking,” I admit.
“What are we supposed to do with it?” He is not happy. “I thought that you’d come up with something more concrete. A real starting point. How are we going to construct a Future Reality Tree with this?”
Don does not have a lot of experience in constructing Future Reality Trees, especially when the starting point is wishful thinking.
“The same way that we always do,” I try to cool him down. “We’ll start with this injection and, using. if . . . then . . . arrows, we’ll try to reach these two objectives. We’ll use additional statements that are correct even now, and, if necessary we’ll add more injections, until we reach the objectives.”
“More statements, more injections? Come on Alex, with such a starting point I can reach the objectives no sweat. But what’s the point? The result will not be a Future Reality Tree, it will be a Future Fantasy Tree! How are we going to reach what you call the starting point? That’s the real problem.”
“I know. And you know that I know. So stop fussing around and let’s do the formal connection to the objectives.”
“But, Alex,” he continues to argue, “if we don’t have even a clue how to achieve the injection, if it’s only a pie-in-the-sky, does it make any sense to continue?”
“Yes, it does,” I firmly say. “Before we rack our brains finding out how to achieve it, first we should know if we want to, if it will do the job. I’m not as sure as you are that this injection, by itself, is sufficient to reach our objectives.”
“But. . . . ”
“If it’s as simple as you say, why are we arguing? Let’s just do it.”
“I guess that it makes sense to see the total picture before slaving on the details.” Don is not overly enthusiastic.
“If, ‘The company takes actions that sufficiently increase the perception of value the market has for the company’s products,’ ” I say, starting to build the Future Reality Tree, “then, ‘The perception of value the market has for the company’s products is higher than the current prices.’ ”
“Why do you claim it?” Don is aggressive.
“Because of the word, ‘sufficiently.’ How would you interpret the words ‘sufficiently increase the perception of value’ if it isn’t increased above the current price?”
“I see what you are doing,” Don’s frowning face starts to clear. “Through constructing the Future Reality Tree