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By Root 1029 0

from research in basic science, the economic cost of abandoning a project is rarely calculable either, because the benefits are so difficult to quantify. The goals of the LHC include achieving fundamental knowledge, including a better understanding of masses and forces, and possibly even of the nature of space. The benefits also include an educated and motivated technically trained populace inspired by big questions and deep ideas about the universe and its composition. On a more practical front, we will follow the information advance CERN made with the World Wide Web, with the “grid” that will allow a global processing of information, as well as improvements in magnet technology that will be useful for medical devices such as MRIs. Possible further applications from fundamental science might ultimately be found, but these are almost always impossible to anticipate.

Cost-benefit analyses are difficult to apply to basic science. A lawyer jokingly applied a cost-benefit approach to the LHC, noting that along with the extremely tiny proposed enormous risk, the LHC also had a minuscule chance of stupendous benefits by solving all the problems of the world. Of course, neither outcome readily fits into a standard cost-benefit calculation, though—incredibly—lawyers have tried.47

At least science benefits from its goals being “eternal” truths. If you find the way the world works, it’s true no matter how quickly or slowly you found it. We certainly don’t want scientific progress to be slow. But the year’s delay showed us the danger of too quickly turning on the LHC. In general, scientists try to proceed safely.

Cost-benefit analysis is riddled with difficulty for almost any complex situation—such as climate change policy or banking. Although in principle a cost-benefit analysis makes sense and there may be no fundamental objection, how you apply it makes an enormous difference. Defenders of cost-benefit analysis essentially make a cost-benefit argument to justify the approach when they ask how can we possibly do better—and they might even be right. I’m simply advocating that where we do apply the method, we do it more scientifically. We need to be clear about the uncertainties in any numbers we present. As with any scientific analysis, we need to take errors, assumptions, and biases into account and be open in presenting these.

One factor that matters a great deal for climate change issues is whether the costs or benefits refer to an individual, a nation, or the globe. The potential costs or benefits can also cross these categories, but we don’t always take this into account. One reason that American politicians decided against the Kyoto Protocol was they concluded that the cost would have exceeded the benefit to Americans—American businesses in particular. However, such a calculation didn’t really factor in the long-term costs of instabilities across the globe or the benefits of a regulated environment where new businesses might prosper. Many economic analyses of the costs of climate change mitigation fail to account for the potential additional benefits to the economy through innovation or to stability through less reliance on foreign nations. Too many unknowns about how the world will change are involved.

These examples also raise the question of how to evaluate and mitigate risk that crosses national borders. Suppose black holes really had posed a risk to the planet. Could someone in Hawaii constructively sue an experiment planned for Geneva? According to existing laws, the answer is no, but perhaps a successful suit could have interfered with American financial contributions to the experiment.

Nuclear proliferation is another issue where clearly global stability is at stake. Yet we have limited control over the dangers generated in other nations. Both climate change and nuclear proliferation are issues that are managed nationally but whose dangers are not restricted to the institutions or nations creating the menace. The political problem of what to do when risks cross national boundaries or legal jurisdictions is difficult.