Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [124]
45
The Situation Room
11 October 2017
With less than two hours remaining on his night watch in the Situation Room, Lt. Colonel Winthrop Taylor began his routine of assimilating data for the president’s Morning Book. It, along with the President’s Daily Brief from the CIA, would be among the first reports read by the president in the morning. While there was an intelligence overlap in this procedure, Taylor assumed President McCarty would follow the same routine as his predecessor.
He had been instructed to pay particular attention to activities related to the Safe Harbors operation, and his report was shaping up to be a big one.
Israel: Showing undeniable signs of deploying nuclear assets. Activities include:
Various stages of movement from 6 Dolphin II-class submarines, carrying capacity of 7-10 nuclear tipped cruise missiles with a nautical range of 900–1400 miles. Two Dolphin submarines are at sea in the Mediterranean; two appear to be ready to leave the Port of Haifa; one is on patrol in the Persian Gulf and one appears to be ready to leave the port city of Eilat on the Red Sea.
Satellite observations indicate stepped-up activity near Israel’s Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, including deployments of Patriot batteries and other surface-to-air missile defense systems.
Stepped-up activities have been observed near the Jericho IV ICBM missile silos. The Jericho IV has an intercontinental range and can deliver a half-megaton warhead with pinpoint accuracy.
Armored units are amassing in the southern Negev Desert for possible deployment against Saudi Arabia.
Possibilities: Israel may be preparing for a nuclear confrontation using their second-strike capabilities. Their nuclear arsenal and delivery systems could sustain a first-strike attack by both Saudi Arabia and Iran and still have enough left to totally obliterate both countries.
Saudi Arabia: The Saudis deployed two additional armored brigades on the southwestern border of the UAE. They have reinforced units along the borders of Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan at the point closest to Israel. They have also conducted three cruise missile demonstration tests near the borders of Qatar and Kuwait.
Possibilities: The Saudis have now deployed most of their armor. The reinforcements near the UAE might indicate a threat to the Strait of Hormuz. A fast armored strike could reach Abu Dhabi in one day and the Strait of Hormuz in two. (20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.) The cruise missile demonstrations may be designed to show the Gulf countries how easy it would be to launch a dirty-bomb attack on their oil fields.
Iran: The Iranian mobilization for war is now well underway. Their nuclear facilities show increased activity of an unknown nature, and several armored columns have amassed across the river from Basra. Iranian intercepts indicate a growing concern with Saudi military buildups near several Gulf states.
Possibilities: The movement of Iranian armored units near Basra indicates a growing concern with Saudi armored buildups near Kuwait. While activities near Iran’s nuclear facilities could be a reaction to the Saudi threat, a strike against Israel cannot be ruled out. Iran’s nuclear arsenal could easily cripple Saudi Arabia, but Iran would be annihilated in a counterstrike if they launched a first-strike attack against Israel.
Oil Estimates: Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE continue to honor the Saudi oil embargo by cutting back on oil shipments, but the recent speech by Prince Khalid may be changing attitudes. About a third of their tankers at sea at the beginning of the crisis have returned to port with their cargos. Collectively, and in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, these nations control almost 25% of the world’s current oil supply. At least three other OPEC countries are on the fence about whether and how to honor the Saudi oil embargo request as of midnight, October 10.
Possibilities: At present, it is too early to tell exactly what percentage