Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [127]
Jack had been aware of this, but hadn’t thought through all of the implications. Just another roadblock to overcome, he thought.
“With regard to Mustafa’s nuclear threat,” Prince Khalid continued, “I’ll tell you what I told the reporters at the Al-Jazeera interview: Mustafa has nuclear capability, but I doubt it goes beyond a limited number of weapons purchased on the black market. It can’t be a large arsenal, but as you would say, nukes are nukes. Any intelligence I can gather on the regime’s nuclear arsenal I will share with you, should we choose to work together.”
“Of course, we deeply appreciate that offer,” Jack said, “for in that respect the safety of the Saudi Arabian people is linked to the safety of millions in the Middle East and beyond.” Privately, he thought that Khalid was a treasure trove of intelligence that would take the CIA months to gather on its own—if ever.
“As for our Arab neighbors,” Khalid continued, “it’s only a matter of time before Mustafa coerces or invades Kuwait, Qatar, or the United Arab Emirates. He must have their support if he is to ensure that a critical mass of oil is kept off the market. I know my counterparts in these countries—they will indulge Mustafa for only as long as it takes to assess the desert winds. When their economies start to falter for lack of oil revenue, they’ll find ways to move the rest of their oil. This, Mustafa cannot tolerate.”
“How long do you think King Mustafa can hold out without oil revenues?”
“That’s a good question, Mr. McCarty, and I don’t know if I can answer it. My guess is that he can hold out for a couple of months. After that, he’ll need revenue. He’ll probably funnel a couple of million barrels a day through an intermediary on the black market, and at future oil prices that will be enough to sustain the Saudi economy for some time. Using that approach, he could easily outlast the United States and China in a battle of attrition.”
“What impediments do you see against us working together, Prince Khalid?”
“First of all, let me say that I think we can work together. However, we must first become more comfortable with each other’s expectations. The single largest deal-breaker is Israel. The United States must do whatever it takes to keep them from invading an Arab country or, worse, making a nuclear strike. Should that happen, given America’s close ties with the Israelis, there would be no way we could work together. America would become our sworn enemy.”
“Let’s suppose we work together and find a way to dispose of the Mustafa regime. What assurances do we have that you, as the new king of Saudi Arabia, will hold to our agreement and not exclude America or others from your oil?”
Prince Khalid thought about this before answering. Jack worried for a moment that he had been too blunt, but the prince appeared to accept his no-nonsense directness.
“Mr. McCarty, I could also ask you the same question regarding America’s commitment after a regime change. But it’s a good question, and I’ll answer. Oil is the key factor here, and I would be willing to do three things to lend stability to the market:
“First, I would agree to put the defense of Saudi oil fields in the hands of United Nations forces for a two-year period to ensure that there are no oil-supply interruptions due to inside or outside actions. Second, I would offer my services to broker a long-term oil protocol between all OPEC oil producers and importers guaranteeing the stability of the global oil markets. Third, I will use my position to bring about greater economic reforms and increase sharing of oil revenues among the Saudi population.
“As a quid pro quo, I would insist that our culture and religion be honored and respected by all who