Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [141]
“The first quadrant deals with our energy challenges. While the Saudi crisis is a true emergency requiring immediate action, acute oil shortages will continue even after it’s resolved. The frequency of oil shortages will increase, and with them our vulnerability to the whims of OPEC oil producers. Our oil-based energy systems are unsustainable; we have no choice but to transition to new, non-oil-based energy models as rapidly as possible. This will include new transportation systems, new clean power sources, a national ‘smart grid’ electrical energy highway system equivalent in scope to Dwight Eisenhower’s freeway-building initiative in the 1950s, and other major infrastructure changes.
“Gasoline rationing and the draw-down of our strategic petroleum reserve will help fill the immediate loss of Saudi oil, but true energy independence will not occur until we wean ourselves from our oil addiction. It will take an effort comparable to the Manhattan Project to transform our energy models and change our consumption patterns.
“The second major quadrant, reading left to right, is climate-change. The satellite data is now incontrovertible: a tipping point has been reached, and the negative impacts of climate-change will now accelerate in more visible ways. Flooding, droughts, and severe weather events have already caused steep declines in global agricultural production and freshwater supply. In the short term, America may become the world’s breadbasket, which could require rationing of food products at home. Rising energy prices will, of course, exacerbate the problem. In collaboration with China—hopefully—the United States will call for worldwide mitigation strategies aimed at sharply reducing greenhouse gases, but the best we can hope to do now is slow the rate of deterioration: the damage has been done. We’ll also need to develop robust adaptation strategies to supplement the mitigation component of our broader climate strategy.
“The third quadrant deals with our economic and geopolitical challenges. The global economy has stagnated over the past six years, mainly because of rising energy prices and massive agricultural failures. In America, we’ve mortgaged the future to support our lifestyles, and the IOUs are now coming due. We can’t print more money to get out of it, and our dependence on foreign investments to support our debt is unsustainable. Accordingly, America will need to do what individual American families do—live within its means. A new budget will be prepared, and it will reflect sharp reductions in entitlement programs, major cutbacks in federal spending, and tax reforms—particularly on consumption-based spending.
“This will be hard to swallow, and I will make clear the consequences of the collapse of the American dollar, the petrodollar transactional system, or America’s fiat reserve currency position—all distinct possibilities—if we don’t get our financial house in order. Without aggressive countermeasures, the financial impacts will be devastating to every American household. The American people need to understand that cuts to entitlements are preventative medicine, a cost well worth paying if we can prevent these economic catastrophes from ever happening.
“The last quadrant deals with our expectations and behaviors. We’ve been so busy living the American dream of mobility, prosperity, and freedom that we’ve forgotten it doesn’t come free of charge. The good old days are gone, and we must now learn to live with less. That means getting back to basics and making personal sacrifices comparable to what our grandparents did to win World War II. I know it’s old fashioned, but I’m going to appeal to their patriotism, and I believe the American people will respond favorably and effectively once they understand the gravity of the crisis and learn the ground