Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [184]
“The formula didn’t bother them as much as the monitoring of compliance. Will it be difficult? Yes, but at least the oil supply chains are predictable again. It will allow us time to systematically replace oil-based fuel systems and usages with alternative energies. But again, the challenge will be in monitoring compliance.”
“I’d agree, Cheng. The world better get used to the idea of seeing a steady reduction of oil supply of at least 3 to 5 percent or more a year, and there’s unlikely to be any sharp improvements in the global economy until we can put in place new energy models not dependent on oil. It’s going to take years.”
The thought was sobering, as they continued their walk in silence.
“What about the environment part, Cheng? You said that was more challenging, and I’m interested in what you meant by that.”
“My challenge was not in convincing them of climate-change, because you can’t live in China and not believe it is happening. The droughts, desertification, Himalayan water challenges, and the quality of the air make it all so apparent. My challenge was to get them to believe a joint effort with the United States, the second-greatest world polluter, was in our best interests. They understand we’re generating over half of the world’s greenhouse gas between us and little can be done globally without cooperation, but they are concerned with what appears to them an inequity in the system.”
“What’s the inequity? The same formula applies to all,” Clayton asked, puzzled.
“I understand that, but try to see their logic, Clayton. The United States and other Western powers all polluted mightily to build their industrial base with no questions asked. Now, suddenly, when things are going well for China, India, and other developing nations, we are asked to curtail our emissions and, perhaps, stifle growth. To the Politburo, there’s a clear double standard: it was okay for the Western industrial nations to build their economies without regard to polluting the atmosphere, but it’s not okay for China, India, and others to do the same.”
“And how do you feel about it?”
“We both agree that we’ll need to shoot for aggregated carbon equivalent targets of 500 to 525 parts per million by 2050, and we both know how difficult that’s going to be—particularly with the negative feedback loops activated in the planetary climate. We still need to finalize the carbon reduction formula, but pegging it to a combination of GDP and per-capita base emission reductions is a good middle-ground solution. Peng and Jack are back at the Lodge talking about this now, and we’re close.”
They reached the end of Clayton’s favorite trail, looked around, and then turned around. The bright sun was energizing, and they were in no hurry to get back.
“How is it all playing out with your people, Clayton?”
“Our situations are not all that dissimilar. It took a long time, but most Americans would now agree that oil and climate-change issues are for real. The Saudis made believers out of them on oil, and they are now correlating the destructive weather patterns, Southwestern droughts, Midwestern flooding, and rising sea levels with climate-change. They now seem to appreciate that the atmosphere knows no boundaries on climate-change. It’s a global challenge requiring a global effort. We’ve demonstrated that our two countries can work together on common goals, and Americans now believe this is the only way we’ll get through our energy and climate challenges. They know it’ll be a challenge to convince other nations to join in, and, like your Politburo, they’re standing vigilant to see that the United States does not get gamed in the process.”
“Indeed, your perfect storm metaphor looks more real every day, Clayton. I sometimes wonder if we haven’t passed the point of no return, and then I remind myself we have to keep trying.”
Clayton nodded thoughtfully, and they picked up the pace of their walk.
“To change the subject, Cheng, how do you read the situation