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By Root 623 0

The prognosis is grim. As global oil production declines, the alternative fuels, transportation models, and infrastructure systems needed to replace lost oil-based energy are insufficient in size and scale to make good on the shortfall. In addition to shortages, the price of oil-based energy, fueled by the immutable laws of supply and demand, will skyrocket. As greater percentages of individual discretionary income and GDP are redeployed toward oil and energy, the economic drag will stifle economic growth, exacerbate unemployment, and create a semipermanent state of economic recession and/or stagflation. This will, in turn, increase national debt loads and make it increasingly difficult for the United States to meet its future entitlement obligations. The temptation to crank up the printing press and monetize debt will be irresistible, the effect on the devalued dollar devastating.

Timetables: Peak oil can only be corroborated by looking in the rear-view mirror. Still, crude oil production has been flat in recent years, with supply gaps made good from unconventional oil, biofuels, coal and gas liquefaction, and other sources. The economic recession of 2008 and 2009 obfuscated the supply-and-demand situation, but as the global economy improves, demand will increase and surpluses will be reduced. Some recent studies suggest that excess capacity could be taken out of the system as early as 2012, with demand outstripping supply thereafter, causing another round of economic deterioration. Whether or not OPEC producers—controlling 70 to 80 percent of known global oil reserves—will step up and finance the capital-intensive efforts needed to develop new oil fields is questionable. And yet, this is basically the hope of the Western world.

For purposes of this book, I have assumed that the oil supply/demand curve will reach equilibrium in 2012 at roughly 87 to 88 MB/D and that nominal demand thereafter will increase by 1 percent per annum while peaked supply decreases by 2 percent.

Chapter 11:

UN Security Council: The United Nations was chartered on October 24, 1945. It has grown from fifty-one original members to the current membership of 192 nations. The key levers of power are housed in the Security Council, a body of fifteen members, ten of whom are rotating members and five permanent. The Security Council has the power to initiate peacekeeping operations, mandate cease-fires, and authorize sanctions. If any one of the five permanent members of the Security Council vetoes a proposed action, it cannot be acted upon. The permanent members are the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China. There have been attempts to give Germany, Brazil, Japan, and India permanent-member status, but reforms in the UN are slow. The larger body of the UN, the General Assembly, has diluted powers. A vote of two-thirds of the membership is required to pass a major initiative, but all members have a right to address the full assembly at specified times.

The New Independence Party: The New Independence Party of California is a fictitious party resembling that of the more moderate Independence Party of America, formed in 2007 and not to be confused with the American Independent Party. It is based on a growing trend in California toward independent voters.

Chapter 12:

Climate-change controversies: Since the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the issue of climate-change—a.k.a. global warming—has become a mainstream public issue. Public interest in, acceptance of, and understanding of the issues has ebbed and flowed. It was a mainstream issue in the 2008 presidential elections and built up more steam (and opposition) in 2009 with passage of the Waxman–Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act (H.R. 2454), which brought cap and trade practices to public attention.

In late 2009 the pendulum swung in the opposite direction with three noteworthy events: 1) Politicians, particularly in the Senate, sensed a shift in public moods away from big-government solutions and failed to act on an energy and environment bill; 2)