Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [209]
Saudi oil production: Saudi Arabia has been called the gas station of the world mainly because of its surplus oil production capacity and access to proven reserves—estimated to be over 20 percent of total global reserves—at marketable prices. Questions have been raised as to whether or not the Saudis have the reserves they claim to have (a concern oil markets have for OPEC nations in general because its members do not allow outside audits of their reserves) and whether or not they could pump what they claim they can. For purposes of the CIA report, an aggressive assumption was made that they could and would pump 12.9 MB/D by 2017.
Asymmetric warfare: In comparison to symmetric warfare, where two powers have similar military power, resources, tactics, and strategies, asymmetric warfare describes a conflict in which two belligerents differ greatly in power, resources, and tactics. In such cases, unconventional means are used to offset the advantages of one adversary over the other. The means used are not always military, and operations may be carried out covertly or by a proxy force not necessarily identified with a host government. While not a new concept, it has been sharpened and refined—particularly in the Middle East—and significant efforts are now made to identify and respond to asymmetric threats throughout the world. In this book, the Saudi regime’s use of dirty bombs is a classic example of asymmetric warfare designed to prevent an invasion by a vastly superior allied force.
Chapter 33:
Oil choke points: With thousands of miles of exposed pipelines, a concentration of oil-processing facilities and ports, and daily shipments comprising about 50 percent of the world’s oil supply via massive tankers, oil-distribution channels are very vulnerable to disruption. The security challenges are compounded by the choke points through which most of tankers travel to reach their final destinations. A choke point is a narrow channel of water along a widely used global sea lane. For illustrative purposes, consider just four of the choke points through which roughly 43 percent of all global oil passes daily:
The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical choke point, given the volume of oil flowing through it and the sensitivity of the area. It is an S-shaped waterway leading into the Gulf, only twenty-one miles wide at its narrowest point between Oman and Iran.
Iran and Iraq: Both countries play a significant role in the Middle East and within OPEC. Iran has become a flashpoint in the area due to its size and aggressive foreign policy. Considered a threat by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it will become more dangerous if it secures nuclear weapons (as assumed in this book). Iraq has an opportunity to become the number-two oil producer in OPEC. With foreign capital and technological support, its oil production is expected to double or triple in the coming years—perhaps more—if it can remain free from conflict-induced delays in its efforts.
Chapter 38:
Perfect Storm metaphor: Please refer to the notes for chapter 50.
Chapter 40:
Al Jazeera: Al Jazeera is a worldwide satellite television network launched in 1996. Headquartered in Doha, Qatar, it is probably the most-watched news channel in the Middle East. It has worldwide range, with English-language versions and websites disseminating additional information. It is well financed and currently has more than sixty news bureaus, with twelve in Africa alone. While accused by some of having strong biases, it is generally considered trustworthy by its news followers.
Chapter 43:
Israeli nuclear capabilities: Israel is widely believed to have a formidable nuclear arsenal, although it has not been formally