Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [212]
The geopolitical balance of power will shift as OECD economic growth stagnates and developing nations such as China, India, and Brazil grow. The balance will also shift toward OPEC and oil-exporting countries at the expense of oil-importing nations. Among OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia will remain the powerhouse with its large proven reserves and daily production capacity. The economic cold war between China and the United States over scarce resources will continue. China will gain ground at the United States’ expense as it continues to focus on long-term strategic and infrastructure objectives—such as locking up long-term oil leases, garnering new markets, growing its strategic military capabilities, and becoming a leader in renewable energy systems—while the United States worries about the next quarterly earnings cycle or election.
4) Behaviors and expectations: Since the end of WWII, the American Dream made possible by cheap and abundant energy has become symbolic of the American way of life. For many, the expectation of unlimited growth and prosperity has translated into a sense of entitlement that every generation ought to live better than the previous one. Indeed, the American Dream has been exported. China and India, for example, are now experiencing a similar sense of upward mobility as their middle classes expand, car ownership increases, new highway systems are constructed, and diets heavy in meat and dairy products become more prevalent. The challenge, of course, will be to find the finite global resources needed to support the growing per capita consumption habits of their collective populations—about seven times the size of the United States.
While the perfect storm will eventually stifle these expectations, disconnects between the new paradigm and past expectations remain. For many, there is a deep uneasiness about the future and where today’s problems will lead. As old-paradigm solutions continue to be unsuccessfully applied to new-paradigm challenges, the level of frustration will grow. This disconnect will continue until we recognize and acknowledge the true nature of the perfect storm and new realities it entails; when we do, we will hone down our expectations and learn to live with less—we will have no other choice.
Triggering mechanisms: Any of the above threats could destabilize the global community. Combined, they could produce an explosive synergy that overwhelms the system. As conditions worsen, the perfect storm will draw ever nearer. It could come like a chronic disease with a progressive worsening of symptoms, or it could come as a big bang, triggered by a devastating event such as a complete global economic meltdown (which nearly happened in 2008), a nuclear confrontation of some sort, or the sudden and dramatic loss of a significant percentage of the oil supply, to name a few.
In this book, the sudden and dramatic drop in global oil supply was the trigger for the perfect storm that followed. The shocking effect on the United States was likened to the aftershocks from Pearl Harbor, and like Pearl Harbor it energized the nation and created the political leverage needed to impose the draconian measures required to survive.
Pearl Harbor transformed the United States almost overnight from a sleepy, isolationist country to an arsenal of democracy and world power. In quick order, fifteen million people were put in uniform, an entire economy was placed on a wartime footing, an atomic bomb was built, an axis enemy was beaten soundly, and enough was left over to finance the rebuilding of Europe through the Marshall Plan.
An aroused and galvanized America is capable of great things, but it takes a major crisis to reach that point. Absent a crisis, the tendency is to look for quick and painless short-term fixes that do little to resolve the long-term challenge—akin to rearranging the proverbial deck chairs on the Titanic. Perhaps a major oil crisis, as suggested in this book, would be a blessing in disguise