Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [38]
Hydrologic Systems: The buildup in ocean acidity levels is pervasive, and the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 has been compromised. Coral systems—the lifeblood of oceanic sea life—have become unhealthy and are withering at unforeseen rates. Higher temperatures and increased levels of moisture have radicalized weather patterns, causing a combination of widespread droughts, flooding, and other extremes. Aquifer density levels are decreasing at an alarming rate, and hydrologic ocean patterns are changing. Further data is required to ascertain the long-term threats.
Greenhouse Gas Intensification: The true CO2 level in 2017 was slightly over 400 ppm (parts per million), but far greater if expressed as a ppm equivalent. The CO2 equivalent value takes into account other greenhouse gases such as methane—21 times more potent than CO2. The current CO2 equivalent growth rate per annum of 3–4 ppm is roughly twice the rate it was twenty years ago. With heavier than anticipated releases of methane, the projected ppm equivalent level can be expected to reach a range of 500–600 ppm in 2050 and increase temperatures by 2.8–3.3 centigrade or more. This far exceeds Kyoto targets of 450 ppm and is well beyond the 350 ppm level many believe is required to sustain life as we know it.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
We are on a catastrophic trajectory that will gravely impact our way of life and ability to sustain a population projected to grow to nine billion people by 2050. The impacts will be increasingly felt from 2020—most noticeably in the areas of rising sea levels, increasing droughts and desertification with concomitant crop failures, altered weather patterns—such as we are now seeing regularly with the Polar Vortex phenomenon—and degradation of the ocean’s food-producing capacity.
The negative feedback loops now in play will grow and intensify as one feedback loop interacts with another. The ecological chain reaction and multiplier effect is not fully understood at this time, and it is possible the greenhouse-gas buildup could far exceed even our revised estimates. While the trajectory lines are ominous and Earth’s ability to self-regulate severely compromised, a crash effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may produce a better outcome in the future. Short-term trends will worsen, however, regardless of efforts made.
Our recommendation is to develop a strategy of aggressive action to slow the rate of deterioration. It will require a climate-change and energy plan that exceeds anything ever before attempted in scope and intensity. The effort must be global with zero tolerance for gaming the system. We sink or swim together—Period.
In addition to developing aggressive mitigation strategies to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, we must also develop global adaptation strategies to lessen the inevitable impacts. Adaptation strategies should systematically address a) coastal areas and low-lying islands, b) freshwater and agricultural shortages, c) disease transmission and economic disruption due to severe weather patterns, and d) international security issues attendant to massive population shifts and the spread of regional wars associated with food and water shortages.
In summary, the scientific evidence is now incontrovertible. The damage is done, and our best hope now rests on robust global strategies of mitigation and adaptation. It will be a race against time to salvage what we still can.
Peter Canton
Secretary, Dept. of ETCC
13
The Situation Room
19 September 2017
Clayton McCarty felt uneasy as he left his office for the short walk to the Situation Room. The uncomfortable, sultry weather with its strong threat of a storm mirrored, he thought, the political climate in Washington.
Serving as acting president without the commensurate authority of the presidency