Proofiness - Charles Seife [102]
53n “We know [smoking is] not good for kids” “Clinton Assails Dole on Tobacco and Liquor Company on TV Ads,” Associated Press, June 16, 1996.
56 the “advantage” . . . evaporated with a new set of data Analysis of Men’s Taekwondo, Boxing, Freestyle Wrestling, and Greco-Roman Wrestling from the “Official Website of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games,” http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/Schedule/ and the NBC 2008 Beijing Olympic Games website http://www.2008.nbcolympics.com/.
64 “The basic story from the equation” Ray C. Fair, “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update,” Political Behavior, June 1996, 133.
64 “It’s not even going to be close” Robert G. Kaiser, “Is This Any Way to Pick a Winner?” Washington Post, May 26, 2000, A1.
65 the BBC trumpeted a formula “The formula for happiness,” BBC News, January 6, 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2630869.stm.
65n I wrote an op-ed Charles Seife, “Predicting the Presidents,” Washington Post, June 3, 2000, A15.
66 the formula that came from Cardiff University “‘I don’t like Monday 24 January, ’” BBC News, January 19, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4187183.stm.
66 Such as the one described by this formula Lukas I. Alpert, “Academics Develop Formula for Perfect Butt,” New York Post, April 13, 2006.
3: Risky Business
67 The chapter epigraph is drawn from U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, “Hearings on the Causes and Effects of the AIG Bailout,” October 7, 2008.
67 “Fate has ordained” William Safire, memo to H. R. Haldeman, “In Event of Moon Disaster,” July 18, 1969, available at http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/apollo1.html.
68 less than 5 percent Trudy E. Bell and Karl Esch, “The Space Shuttle: A Case of Subjective Engineering,” IEEE Spectrum, June 1989, 42-46 (quotation on 44).
69 “The probability of a . . . failure” E. W. Colglazier and R. K. Weatherwax, “Failure Estimates for the Space Shuttle,” Abstracts for Society for Risk Analysis, Annual Meeting 1986, quoted in Roger Cooke, Experts in Uncertainty (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991), 20.
69 “to rely upon its engineering judgment” Ibid.
70 “As far as I can tell” Richard Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think? (New York: Norton, 1988), 183.
70 “It was clear” Ibid.
71 “Imagine that the U.S. is preparing” Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice,” Science, January 30, 1981, 453.
73 “Virgin has a detailed understanding” virgingalactic.com, http://www.virgingalactic.com/htmlsite/faq.php?subtitle=Safety&src=141. (currently defunct)
74 there would be roughly 275 U.S. plane crashes Derived from Bureau of Transportation Statistics, “December 2008 Airline Traffic Data: System Traffic Down 5.7 Percent in December from 2007 and Down 3.7 Percent in 2008,” http://www.bts.gov/press_releases/2009/bts012 _09/html/bts012 _09.html.
74 New Mexico politicians “Spaceport America Breaks Ground In New Mexico,” press release, spaceportamerica.com, June 22, 2009, www.spaceportamerica.com/news/press-releases/244-spabreaksgroundnewmexico.html.
75 “October 26, 2028 could be our last day” Elizabeth Blue, Herald (Glasgow), March 13, 1998, 1.
75 “The world ends on Feb 1 2019 (possibly)” David Derbyshire, Daily Telegraph (UK), July 25, 2002, 3.
75 “Is the end nigh? Science experiment could swallow Earth, critics say” Joseph Brean, National Post (Canada), September 9, 2008, A1.
75 “Physicists fear Big Bang machine could destroy Earth” Jonathan Leake, Calgary Herald, July 19, 2000, A7.
76 Audi sales plummeted Marshall Schuon, “Audi Redesigns and Presses On,” New York Times, April 18, 1993, section 8, p. 14.
77 A safety “expert” had apparently bored a hole Peter Huber, “Manufacturing the Audi Scare,” Wall Street Journal, December 18, 1989, 1.
77n “If that had happened at 60 Minutes” Elizabeth Kolbert, “NBC Settles Truck Crash Lawsuit, Saying Test Was ‘Inappropriate,’” New York Times, February