Survival__ Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation - Charles George Smith [159]
We come now to the heart of our integrated understanding and the responses that are most likely to foster prosperity and security.
Let's establish these contexts:
• The responses are built on principles, not "one size fits all" solutions. There are no "one size fits all" fixes to the many interlocking challenges we face as individuals/households, communities and as a nation. Solutions will be specific to individuals and communities and voluntarily chosen, not imposed.
• The Internet is integral to the transparency and exchange of ideas that will enable positive responses.
• Hybrid models of work, collaboration, capital, production and trade will replace highly centralized, "factory" hierarchical models in many situations.
• Solutions and responses are dynamically evolving in response to changing circumstances and feedbacks. Thus there is no one investment strategy which will maintain purchasing power in all circumstances. Flexibility, adaptability and acceptance of failure as part of the process are key to successfully navigating the dynamic era ahead. "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill)
• Since "There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity" (Douglas MacArthur), contingency planning—having a "Plan B"—is essential in every situation.
Let's revisit Chapter Three's "five distinct issues to sort out":
1. The elements of human nature which lend themselves to cycles and manipulation
2. The nature of the energy, financial and environmental trends/crises which are heralding the Great Transformation
3. The nature of the negative and positive feedback loops which determine the system's stability and direction
4. The responses which have a high probability of making the Transformation positive
5. The nature of future work and the skillsets best suited to prospering during the Great Transformation
As for Point One, I think we have adequately addressed the many cognitive traps and the equally unproductive attractions of complacency and fatalism.
As for Point Two, I think we now understand that we face not some isolated, temporary "financial crisis" or even a political crisis, but an interconnected, self-reinforcing series of crises and challenges which span every level of modern life, from the internal politics of experience to depleting resources to degraded environment to financial and political domination by Elites of capital and State and on to demographics and the host of ills triggered by over-reach.
The ultimate context of our integrated understanding is that the world must use the remaining extractable reserves of fossil fuels to construct an alternative energy system that does not rely on cheap, abundant fossil fuels. The cost of such a global system is unknown, but I would start with $100 trillion or roughly three years of global GDP as a starting estimate.
As noted before, wealth is simply stored energy. Without energy, there is no wealth. Virtually all of what we consider wealth is merely a reflection or consequence of cheap, abundant oil.
If humanity foolishly consumes the last of its planetary "gift" of easily extractable oil, coal and natural gas on vacations, suburban lifestyles and other non-productive uses, then when fossil fuels enter the final depletion stage there won't be enough to construct a sustainable energy system.
As for Point Three, we have discussed numerous traps and the nature of positive and negative feedback systems. Most importantly, we discussed how the middle class is being squeezed to extinction and in Section Two how the concentration of power and capital has created institutional and systemic vulnerability. We have also described the insurmountable barriers to standard reforms and thus established that devolution and insolvency (financial collapse) are the