Survival__ Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation - Charles George Smith [22]
1. demographics (promised retirement benefits are unaffordable)
2. global financial deleveraging (renunciation/write-off of debt)
3. high-cost advanced economies, "Planet of Slums" developing economies
4. rising interest rates (shortage of surplus capital)
5. de-scaling/disruption of entrenched industries/fiefdoms by the Web
6. scalability traps/structural job losses in all economies
7. crippling regulation and overhead burdens on small entrepreneurs
8. fossil fuel depletion (Peak Oil)
9. "head-fake" drop in energy costs removes incentives for alternative energy
10. political disunity; elites' interests diverge from those of the society as a whole
11. rising income disparity
12. depletion of fresh water, ocean and soil resources
13. climate change (weather extremes, rising sea levels, etc.)
14. increasingly drug-resistant bacteria and viruses
15. rising chemical and industrial pollution levels (air, water, soil, etc.)
16. increasing availability of bioweapons and nuclear weapons
I summarize the four primary cycles in my book Weblogs & New Media: Marketing in Crisis:
1. Peak oil, or the depletion cycle/end-game of the global economy's complete dependence on inexpensive, readily available petroleum/fossil fuels.
2. The cycle of credit expansion and contraction (approximately 60-70 years), which is now beginning the transition from unsustainable credit expansion (bubble) to renunciation of debt (credit collapse) and global depression.
3. The generational cycle (4 generations or approximately 80 years) of American history which leads to nation-changing social, political and economic upheaval. (The American Revolution: 1781 +80 years = Civil War, 1861 +80 years = 1941, World War II + 80 years = 2021)
4. The 100+ year cycle of price inflation and stagnation of wages' purchasing power which began around 1901 is now reaching the final stage of widespread turmoil, shortages, famine, war, conflict and crisis.
Without a firm understanding of the cyclical nature of human history and the unique challenges of our era, we are hard-pressed to escape the comforting illusions of complacency and fatalism.
A key point is that the above crises (or potential crises) are not discrete phenomena which can be solved in piecemeal fashion but rather interlocking, overlapping and in some cases reinforcing problems which range from long-term depletions to volatile geopolitical tensions which could burst into conflict. Over an intermediate time scale, a weather crisis such as extended drought could cause a food shortage which might then put a match to a smoldering geopolitical tinderbox.
The complacency and misplaced confidence of the status quo render these unpredictable interactions all the more combustible because so little has been done to anticipate the potential domino effect of these global crises.
Context Three: Interlocking Crises, Time Scales and Globalization
One of the factors which renders the intersecting crises of the next 15-25 years so difficult to predict is the multiple time scales at work. A global petroleum shortage, for example, could stagger the developed world in a very short timespan as hoarding and governmental rationing would quickly magnify the disruptions.
Food shortages might develop over a longer period of months as drought, energy shortages and geopolitical issues caused a sharp decline in grain production and/or shipping.
A nuclear war between two long-standing adversaries such as India and Pakistan could erupt in a matter of weeks should internal crises trigger border tensions. China might suddenly deem the moment ripe to conquer Taiwan with military force, loosing a cascading crisis which could lead to limited or even nuclear war between the U.S. and China.
Any war involving the Mideast, East Asia or the U.S. might dramatically effect oil, currencies and trade which would quickly impact economies, food supplies and the psychology of instability/fear/hoarding.
Ironically, the great benefits of globalization--long oil-dependent supply chains leading