The Bear and the Dragon - Tom Clancy [104]
"Okay, Ben," Ryan said, leaning back in his chair and flipping through the PDB pages. "Whats interesting?"
"Mary Pat has something happening in China. Not sure what it is, though. Shes keeping these cards pretty close. The rest of todays document you can get on CNN."
Which was, depressingly, not infrequently the case. On the other hand, the world was fairly sedate, and penetrating information wasnt all that necessary … or apparently so, Ryan corrected himself. You could never tell. Hed learned that one at Langley, too.
"Maybe Ill call her about it," POTUS said, flipping the page. "Whoa!"
"The Russian oil and gas?"
"Are these numbers for real?"
"It appears so. They track with what TRADERS been feeding us from his sources, step for step."
"Ummhmm," Ryan breathed, looking over the resulting forecasts for the Russian economy. Then he frowned with some disappointment. "Georges people did a better evaluation of results."
"Think so? CIAs economics troops have a pretty decent track record."
"George lives in that business. Thats better than being an academic observer of events, Ben. Academia is fine, but the real world is the real world, remember."
Goodley nodded. "Duly noted, sir."
"Throughout the 80s, CIA overestimated the Soviet economy. Know why?"
"No, I dont. What went wrong?"
Jack smiled wryly. "It wasnt what was wrong. It was what was right. We had an agent back then who fed us the same information the Soviet Politburo got. It just never occurred to us that the system was lying to itself. The Politburo based its decisions on a chimera. Their numbers were almost never right because the underlings were covering their own asses. Oops."
"Same thing in China, you suppose?" Goodley asked. "Theyre the last really Marxist country, after all."
"Good question. Call Langley and ask. Youll get an answer from the same sort of bureaucrat the Chinese have in Beijing, but to the best of my knowledge we dont have a penetration agent in Beijing who can give us the numbers we want." Ryan paused and looked at the fireplace opposite his desk. Hed have to have the Secret Service put a real fire in it someday … "No, I expect the Chinese have better numbers. They can afford to. Their economy is working, after a fashion They probably deceive themselves in other ways. But they do deceive themselves. Its a universal human characteristic, and Marxism doesnt ameliorate it very much." Even in America, with its free press and other safeguards, reality often slapped political figures in the face hard enough to loosen some teeth. Everywhere, people had theoretical models based on ideology rather than facts, and those people usually found their way into academia or politics, because real-world professions punished that sort of dreamer more than politics ever did.
"Morning, Jack," a voice said from the corridor door.
"Hey, Robby." POTUS pointed to the coffee tray. Vice President Jackson got himself a cup, but passed on the croissants. His waistline looked a little tight. Well, Robby had never looked like a marathoner. So many fighter pilots tended to have thick waists. Maybe it was good for fighting g-forces, Jack speculated.
"Read the PDB this morning. Jack, this Russian oil and gold thing. Is it really that big?"
"George says its even bigger. You ever sit down with him to learn economics?"
"End of the week, were going to play a round at Burning Tree, and Im reading Milton Friedman and two other books to bone up for it. You know, George comes across as pretty smart."
"Smart enough to make a ton of money on The Street—and I mean if you put his money in hundred-dollar bills and weigh them, it is a fucking ton of money."
"Must be nice," breathed a man whod never made more than $130,000