The Big Short_ Inside the Doomsday Machine - Michael Lewis [51]
Eisman didn't know exactly how the rating agencies had been gamed. He had to learn. Thus began his team's months-long quest to find the most overrated bonds in a market composed of overrated bonds. A month or so into it, after they bought their first credit default swaps on subprime mortgage bonds from Lippmann, Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses flew to Orlando for what amounted to a subprime mortgage bond conference. It had an opaque title--ABS East--but it was, in effect, a trade show for a narrow industry: the guys who originated subprime mortgages, the Wall Street firms that packaged and sold subprime mortgages, fund managers who invested in nothing but subprime mortgage-backed bonds, the agencies that rated subprime mortgage bonds, the lawyers who did whatever the lawyers did. Daniel and Moses thought they were paying a courtesy call on a cottage industry, but the cottage was a castle. "There were so many people being fed by this industry," said Daniel. "That's when we realized that the fixed income departments of the brokerage firms were built on this."
That's also when they made their first face-to-face contact with the rating agencies. Greg Lippmann's people set it up for them, on the condition they not mention that they were betting against, and not for, subprime mortgage bonds. "Our whole purpose," said Moses, "was supposed to be, 'We're here to buy these securities.' People were supposed to think, 'Oh, they're looking to buy paper because it's getting to attractive levels.'" In a little room inside the Orlando Ritz-Carlton hotel, they met with both Moody's and S&P. Vinny and Danny already suspected that the subprime market had subcontracted its credit analysis to people who weren't even doing the credit analysis. Nothing they learned that day allayed their suspicion. The S&P people were cagey, but the woman from Moody's was surprisingly frank. She told them, for instance, that even though she was responsible for evaluating subprime mortgage bonds, she wasn't allowed by her bosses simply to downgrade the ones she thought deserved to be downgraded. She submitted a list of the bonds she wished to downgrade to her superiors and received back a list of what she was permitted to downgrade. "She said she'd submit a list of a hundred bonds and get back a list with twenty-five bonds on it, with no explanation of why," said Danny.
Vinny, the analyst, asked most of the questions, but Danny attended with growing interest. "Vinny has a tell," said Moses. "When he gets excited he puts his hand over his mouth and leans his elbow on the table and says, 'Let me ask you a question about this...' When I saw the hand to face I knew Vinny was on to something."
Here's what I don't understand, said Vinny, hand on chin. You have two bonds that seem identical. How is one of them triple-A and the other not?
I'm not the one who makes those decisions, said the woman from Moody's, but she was clearly uneasy.
Here's another thing I don't understand, said Vinny. How could you rate any portion of a bond made up exclusively of subprime mortgages triple-A?
That's a very good question.
Bingo.
"She was great," said Moses. "Because she didn't know what we were up to."
They called Eisman from Orlando and said, However corrupt you think this industry is, it's worse. "Orlando wasn't even the varsity conference," said Daniel. "Orlando was the JV conference. The varsity met in Vegas. We told Steve, 'You have to go to Vegas. Just to see this.'" They really thought that they had a secret. Through the summer and early fall of 2006, they behaved as if they had stumbled upon a fantastic treasure map, albeit with a few hazy directions. Eisman was now arriving home at night in a better mood than his wife had seen him in a very long time. "I was happy," says Valerie. "I thought, 'Thank God there's a place