The Crash Course - Chris Martenson [10]
Oil is not the only critical resource that will be in shorter-than-hoped-for supply in the future. Literally dozens of essential minerals and other natural resources found in the third E, the environment (such as silver, phosphate, and possibly even coal, from a net energy perspective) will peak right alongside oil.
Again, this is not a story of “running out”; this is a story where resource extraction gets just a little bit more challenging and a little bit more expensive. Consequently, fewer and fewer resources come up out of the ground to sustain the economy that we know and love. Will all economic activity cease with the depletion of a few key elements? No, of course not. But neither can our economy continue to operate in precisely the same way that it did when demand alone dictated supply.
And that’s my key message here. There is a wealth of data suggesting that a period of profound change is either already upon us or coming soon enough to warrant the attention of every serious long-term investor and prudent adult with an eye on the future. We can no longer constrain our thinking to just one E, the economy; we must include the other two Es, energy and the environment. My background as a scientist forces me to consider all the variables within a system. For far too long, economists have been allowed to behave as if the economy was an independent system all on its own. It is not. It is a subset of the larger world, and I attribute all of my success at predicting the events that have unfolded to the fact that I hold this larger, more complete, and therefore more useful view of the world.
Each of the three Es depends upon the other two. They are utterly intertwined, and that’s why we need to consider them together. When we do, we are using what I call “the lens.” The critical insight that comes from using this lens brings the understanding that continued economic growth is both absolutely essential and also impossible: Essential because our economic system was designed to grow and performs horribly when it cannot, and impossible because nothing can grow forever. The implications are profound and numerous.
Once I developed this lens, I found myself unable to put it completely aside. It has shaped my thinking and my decisions, and was the primary means by which I made sense of new information as it became available. Although I have constantly sought evidence that this view, this hypothesis, might be wrong, it has only been reinforced over the years as the data continues to pile up.
What would I do if new information came along that proved this lens to be mistaken or misleading? I would change my thinking, of course. But as the information has rolled in over the past several years, the validity of this view has only been confirmed. While I am open to the possibility that I may not have everything exactly right, I will present enough solid, fact-based evidence that a reasonable and prudent adult should at least step back, consider the matter, and not reject it out of hand simply because it might seem to be unthinkable.
If I am right, then the next 20 years are going to be completely unlike the last 20 years, and we will be grateful for the foresight that we can gain through the lens of the three Es.
CHAPTER 3
A World Worth Inheriting
The reason I have chosen this path in life over others that may have been easier or cushier is to fulfill my one highest goal: I want to create a world worth inheriting. Everything else pales in comparison.
I have three children, and I have every expectation of having grandchildren someday. I fervently wish for them to have the same opportunities that I have enjoyed. But my goal extends well beyond my small clan. I want your children and grandchildren to have an abundant world filled with meaningful relationships, activities, and careers where they can use their