The Crash Course - Chris Martenson [109]
The future of water is one of scarcity. It’s a future where “water refugees” will need to move from regions where the local aquifers can no longer support the populations above them, and where nations will squabble and possibly go to war over water rights and access. It’s hard to imagine how this water scarcity won’t translate into crop and food scarcity.
Water use provides a perfect illustration of the gap between the “grow now at any cost” mentality and a rational, thoughtful approach. If a city is drawing upon a depleting ancient aquifer, has no other plans for water, and continues to grow, then it’s being led by people who are either deeply irrational or who lack an appropriate horizon of concern.
Unfortunately, this description applies to many cities all over the world, including many in so-called developed nations. The evidence is dramatic and overwhelming, and it’s time for us to come to terms with it. The alternative is to wait for circumstances to force the issue, risking prosperity and even water wars.
CHAPTER 22
All Fished Out
I loved fishing with my grandfather when I was a child. I can’t recall us ever talking about anything—not one conversation comes to mind—but there was no need for words; we were fishing. He took me to the Branford public pier on the Long Island Sound, and we caught many different types of fish there. The waters were teeming with life. I remember an abundance that, sadly, is no longer in evidence there when I take my kids fishing.
Once again, this chapter isn’t designed to be a long recitation of the many challenges that our oceans are facing—there are too many to list—but I’ll continue to make the simple point that we’re already up against hard limits with respect to what the oceans can provide. More growth? Another 10, 20, or 30 years of increasing exploitation of the ocean’s riches? It’s not going to happen. They’re already fished out.
Ninety Percent Gone
A recent study published in the esteemed journal Nature concluded that the combined weight of all oceanic large fish species has declined by 90 percent.1 If something supposedly renewable is being harvested at a rate that causes its mass to shrink alarmingly, then it’s a poster child for the concept of “unsustainability.”
As Lester Brown put it in Plan B 3.0:
After World War II, accelerating population growth and steadily rising incomes drove the demand for seafood upward at a record pace. At the same time, advances in fishing technologies, including huge refrigerated processing ships that enabled trawlers to exploit distant oceans, enabled fishers to respond to the growing world demand. In response, the oceanic fish catch climbed from 19 million tons in 1950 to its historic high of 93 million tons in 1997. This fivefold growth—more than double that of population during this period—raised the wild seafood supply per person worldwide from 7 kilograms in 1950 to a peak of 17 kilograms in 1988. Since then, it has fallen to 14 kilograms.2
As population grows and as modern food-marketing systems give more people access to these products, seafood consumption is growing. Indeed, the human appetite for seafood is outgrowing the sustainable yield of oceanic fisheries. Today, 75 percent of fisheries are being fished at or beyond their sustainable capacity. As a result, many are in decline and some have collapsed.
Cod, bluefin tuna, swordfish, shark, herring, and innumerable other species