The Crash Course - Chris Martenson [117]
Your first challenge, then, is to accept the implications of the data that I’ve presented—that hard, physical limits aren’t some vague condition of the far-off future; they are concrete and immediate concerns. The story that many take for granted is drawing to a close, and a new one is beginning. There may be some hard times along the way as we adjust. Perhaps not everyone will successfully make the transition. But I know deep down that we can live within our means and create any sort of a future that we desire—except, of course, one that looks exactly like the past 20 years.
It’s time to close the book on growth and open a new chapter.
CHAPTER 25
Future Scenarios
By now your head may be spinning. You’ve absorbed a lot of information in the prior pages. Perhaps you can feel the first edges of the three Es touching, but they haven’t yet knit together in your thoughts. It has taken me years to deepen and hone my appreciation for this material. It’s weighty, but it’s also of utmost importance. How do we take that next step and integrate this material into our thoughts, minds, and hearts so that we can take effective actions to change ourselves willingly, before outside factors force change upon us?
One technique that I favor is the use of scenarios, which are detailed stories that help weave together the disparate pieces so that we can test the plausibility of the plot for ourselves and assess whether the material rings true. As you read through the following three scenarios, keep these major elements in mind:
An exponentially based system of money and debt, designed to flourish under conditions of constant growth
Energy sources—principally petroleum, but also, soon enough, coal—that will fail to deliver more net energy to the economy than in the past
Critical resources from the environment (our primary sources of wealth) that are depleting, growing ever more dilute, becoming difficult to find and refine, and requiring more energy to obtain
An already distressingly large global population that is expected to grow by nearly 50 percent between 2000 and 2050
An agricultural system that already has nearly every useful acre under production, loses topsoil to the winds and the rivers each year faster than it can be made, mines the soils, is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and sends critical nutrients on a one-way trip to the oceans where they are diluted beyond all recovery
Scenario 1: A Slow Tumble
Framing: In this scenario, nothing ever goes horribly wrong, but neither does anything ever quite work “right” again. What has worked in the past doesn’t seem to work anymore, greatly puzzling the economic and financial authorities.
It is October of 2014, and the U.S. and European economic leaders are meeting for the second time in six months for another summit on how to combat the persistent economic weakness that has stumped and embarrassed central bankers and politicians alike. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high—well over 10 percent in both economic arenas—and successive rounds of stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, have perplexingly failed to have any lasting impact on either employment or final demand.
Factions and rifts are starting to develop within and across the various political and ideological camps. Nerves are fraying. One school of thought, led by the U.S. central bank, believes that debt overhanging the markets is to blame, and wants to remove the debt by purchasing even more debt off the open markets. The theory is that with cash instead of debt, the financial centers will push the funds into the economy, which will then sputter back to life.
On the other side is a group that