The Crash Course - Chris Martenson [14]
Is this sustainable?
If it can’t go on forever, what impact would I experience if it stopped?
How much do I trust the authorities here to either tell me the truth or to do the right thing?
Are there any conflicts of interest that might be clouding the experts’ message?
The most important lesson that I have learned is that you should trust yourself and act accordingly. If you have significant doubts about the sustainability of your country’s current trajectory, or the stock market, or where food comes from, then those doubts are worth observing and acting upon. There is a time to trust professionals, and there is a time to trust yourself. Now is the time to trust yourself.
We are about to embark on a series of chapters where I will present evidence indicating numerous current but unsustainable trends that will not only someday stop (as all unsustainable things must do) but will potentially even collide, magnifying their individual impact into something greater than their individual parts. These trends are complex, nonlinear, and intertwined. But they can be understood, and should be, because that understanding is the best way of illuminating the future.
Just as we don’t have to understand molecular biology in order to “know” about the process of aging, we can assess the trends in the economy, energy, and environment without having to know every detail. Much of what I am going to present is really just a common-sense connection of dots, combined with a researcher’s ability to extract relevant information and an educator’s desire to make it all interesting.
As we step through the material in the next chapters, I am going to invite you to recall the simple questions above, particularly Is this sustainable? At the end of it all, if you find you agree with me that we are collectively on a highly unsustainable path, then the decisions you need to make will become clear. All you need to do is trust yourself.
PART II
Foundation
CHAPTER 5
Dangerous Exponentials
In this book we will explore a few key foundational concepts that will help you gain a better understanding of what lies ahead. None of them is more important than exponential growth. Exponential growth holds the honorary position as the “fourth E” in this story. Understanding the ways in which our lives are surrounded and shaped by exponential growth is a necessary part of our ability to effectively anticipate and proactively prepare for our future.
When the president comes on television and says that our highest priority is “returning the economy to a path of growth,” what he is really saying is that our top priority is returning the economy to a path of exponential growth. Exponential growth is the only type of growth that is expected and required by our economy.
Examples of exponential growth in your life extend well beyond the economy. We are literally surrounded by examples of exponential growth. The human population has been growing exponentially for thousands of years; consequently, so has humans’ use of resources. This decade there will be exponentially more retail outlets, reams of paper produced, cars on the road, units of energy burned, money created, and food consumed than last decade.
Exponential growth dominates and defines everything that is happening—and that will happen—regarding the economy, energy, and resources of all kinds, which is why you should pay particular attention to this chapter. As soon as you understand exponential growth and can connect it to the other three Es, then you, too, will appreciate why the future will be radically different from the past.
If exponential growth is so ubiquitous and surrounds us at every turn, why is it not completely obvious to everyone? Why do we need to discuss it at all? The reason is that we’re all accustomed to thinking linearly, and exponential