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are essential and which ones aren’t. It involves making strategic decisions requiring a view of the future and knowing which services to retain, which to eliminate, and which to outsource. How does one plan for an uncertain future and then budget for it effectively? How does all of this get persuasively communicated to all the various stakeholders? The challenges are numerous, and the skills required to manage successfully here are quite often distinct from those that have been used during periods of active growth. Who will help bring these new skills to all of the municipal and corporate managers?

Reskilling will be important at all levels of the workforce, not just managerial. If my basic ideas hold true, then declining service jobs will be accompanied by a swing back toward manufacturing. Producing more local goods from local materials, especially recycled ones, will require an enormous retraining of a significant proportion of the workforce. In some cases, vital shop skills have been lost and will have to be regained somehow. There will be opportunities in the management and delivery of these reskilling services and lessons. But such dramatic work-life change isn’t easy, especially for those past a certain age or who have heavily invested in their prior careers, which means that part of the reskilling services will have to include psychological counseling and management.

Coming to terms with the vast changes is going to be difficult for many and will require the support and participation of individuals who are adept at change management.

The Greatest Opportunity of Them All

Your greatest opportunity is the chance to rethink everything: your priorities, what you do with your time, and how you relate to others. Great moments of change are opportunities to shift who you are and how you show up in the world. If you feel as though you have been performing in a dress rehearsal rather than living your true life, then perhaps this prospect of change is something to look forward to, not something to be feared.

The opportunity exists here to redefine your life into something with more meaning, greater community connections, and personal fulfillment. The most important thing you can do in the days ahead is to forge stronger community connections, and help your own local community become more aware of and prepared for the changes that are already beginning. For those without either awareness or preparation—and there will be many in every community—the changes are going to feel wrenching, confusing, and possibly overwhelming. You have the chance to help them even as you help yourself. I invite you to trust yourself and make the most of this magnificent opportunity.

Appendix

Figure A.1 Minerals Fully or Partially Imported by the United States

Notes

Chapter 5: Dangerous Exponentials

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2. U.S. Census Bureau, “Historical Estimates of World Population,” www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html (accessed November 6, 2010).

3. United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Population to 2300,” (2004): 179–180. www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf (accessed November 6, 2010).

4. Wisdom from Pakistan, “The World’s Expected Carrying Capacity in a Post Industrial Agrarian Society,” Oil Drum: Europe, November 1, 2007. www.theoildrum.com/node/3090 (accessed November 5, 2010).

5. Albert A. Bartlett, “Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis,” American Journal of Physics 46 no. 9 (1978): 876. www.albartlett.org/articles/art_forgotten_fundamentals_overview.html (accessed November 5, 2010).

6. Albert A. Bartlett, “Arithmetic, Population, and Energy” (video). Last modified June 16, 2007. www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY (accessed November 5, 2010).

7. Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger, “China Passes U.S. as World’s Biggest Energy Consumer, IEA Says,” Bloomberg,