The Crash Course - Chris Martenson [31]
A predicament, by contrast, has no solution. Faced with a predicament, people can develop responses, but not solutions. Those responses may succeed, they may fail, or they may fall somewhere in between, but no response can erase a predicament. Predicaments have outcomes that can be managed, but circumstances cannot be returned to their original state.
Greer framed this distinction in terms of the enormous changes wrought by the rise of industrialization and English wars of conquest upon a prosperous English farming village in 1700. For many villagers, the transformations of that era were wrenching and fatal. What those English villagers faced in the years after 1700 constituted a predicament, not a problem, because change was inevitable and the consequences were unavoidable.
If you have a problem on your hands, then spending time searching for a solution is a perfectly good use of your resources, because by definition, a solution exists. Seeking solutions to a predicament, on the other hand, is a waste of time because none exist; all you will find are outcomes that must be managed as intelligently as possible. Growing older, depleting a finite resource, and developing Type I diabetes are all examples of predicaments. The historical search for the fountain of youth was a perfect example of an attempt to solve the predicament of aging—a very attractive proposition, if a fountain could ever be found—by treating it as a problem with a potential solution (the fountain). But sadly, those efforts were a complete waste of time.
Let us first explore the essence of having a problem. Look at the two gentlemen in Figure 8.1. They have a problem on their hands.
Figure 8.1 A Problem at the Cliff
Photo: Greg Epperson
I admit that this is an extreme example, as no prudent climbers would ever put themselves in this situation, but it illustrates my point. There are a number of solutions to this problem that would return both climbers to their original condition of relative safety. Perhaps a big mattress could be placed under them, a rope could be lowered, or the climber hanging by a toe could even reach the rock face and climb down all on his own. Any of these solutions could result in both climbers returning to the ground safe and sound. Solutions exist that potentially allow both participants to return to their previous, presumably unimpeded state.
The gentleman in Figure 8.2, however, has a predicament on his hands.
Figure 8.2 A Predicament at the Cliff
Photo: Brady Jones
No matter how fast or how hard he pinwheels his arms backward, he isn’t going to fly back to the top of the cliff. He is going to get wet; that outcome is certain. And he needs to carefully manage his current situation to secure the safest outcome that he can, by trying to hit the water feet first instead of belly flopping.
What if the gentleman plummeting toward the water spends his time busily thinking of clever ways to fly back to the top of the cliff, instead of focusing on how he will land in the water? First, he won’t succeed, because no feasible solution exists there. Second, he’ll waste time and divert critical mental resources away from the all-important task of managing the best landing possible, and with this approach he will be placing himself at greater risk of injury, or worse. When faced with a predicament, seeking a solution isn’t just a useless thing to do; it is the wrong thing to do. Critical time and resources should be devoted to managing the outcome, not trying to do the impossible.
In this book, we are going to review reams of data collectively pointing to the fact that we’re facing a very large predicament made up of a series of smaller, nested predicaments. The ongoing depletion of energy, the frivolous but deadly serious mountains of debt that we have accumulated, the advancing age of baby boomers, and depleting minerals are just some examples of the predicaments we face.
Yet many people and most politicians spend nearly all of their time treating these predicaments as if they were problems. Solutions