The God Species_ How the Planet Can Survive the Age of Humans - Mark Lynas [103]
The filthiest fuel of all, and a major global source of black carbon, is burned offshore, by the tens of thousands of merchant ships that ply our seas. Emissions in port areas can be significant, and one estimate of global mortality from these deadly particles and other ship-emitted pollutants totals 60,000 people per year28—more than a dozen annual Chernobyls.29 Because their emissions largely take place out of sight, shipowners save money by burning heavy oil in the engines of their vessels, a fuel that is literally the scrapings of the oil-refining barrel. Once again, changes are afoot: The International Maritime Organization has set a 2020 deadline for big reductions in sulfur and soot pollution from the world’s 50,000-strong shipping fleet.30 Much of this will need to be supplied by cleaner fuels, but onboard scrubbers are also an option that should be mandated in bigger ships to clean up exhaust emissions before they are released. Over the longer term, as fossil fuels are gradually phased out in all forms of surface transportation to address global warming, co-benefits in pollution reduction will be realized. I outlined in an earlier chapter that electrification is probably the best option for the world’s vehicle fleet: Electric cars of course have zero emissions of soot as well as CO2.
China is not as far behind in its transportation pollution-control standards as many Westerners, familiar with horror stories about the country’s smoggy cities, assume. The Chinese government bases its vehicle emissions rules on European standards, and the 2005 Euro IV standard now applies nationally for new cars. In India, similar rules are mandated, though only in cities. China may move up to the higher Euro V standards as early as 2012, according to news reports. But the biggest source of Chinese black carbon emissions is not cars but coal, particularly coal burned on domestic fires and in small-scale industries in rural areas. For the latter issue, this is a problem that will be increasingly solved by modernization, as China abandons old artisanal methods in industries like brick kilns, local power stations, and coke and cement production and replaces them with larger-scale centralized industries that have better pollution control. The rapid pace of industrialization is rightly blamed for causing appalling air pollution in China, but as prosperity grows so both the political will and financial resources are rallying to reduce these impacts at the source. In recent years Beijing has implemented stricter emissions standards nationwide for coal-burning power plants and cement production, while smaller, dirty factories have simply been closed. Even though coal generation doubled between 2001 and 2006, emissions of soot particulates fell by almost a quarter thanks to modern standards being applied at power stations.31
In most of developing Asia, the largest-scale black carbon problem should be the cheapest and easiest to solve. This is the production of smoke from dirty cooking stoves in households. Indoor smoke pollution from old-style stoves or open fires burning wood, dung, or coal kills 1.6 million people a year due to respiratory infections worsened by smoke inhalation;