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NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE

Despite frequent claims to the contrary, current technology will not suffice on its own to do the job. We will need dramatic improvements in the efficiency of renewable power sources and breakthroughs also in technological options for removing the additional burden of carbon dioxide that has already accumulated in the atmosphere. This calls for big investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) in energy. The good news is that, after falling continuously since about 1979, energy RD&D began an upturn in 1997 that continues today—and indeed has been hugely boosted by government economic stimulus spending, now totaling $23 billion in OECD countries, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Less good news is that energy as a proportion of total RD&D has actually declined, from 12 percent in 1981 to 4 percent in 2008.78 And with the stimulus spending quickly giving way to cuts and public-sector austerity, the outlook for government-funded energy technology innovation seems bleak.

Closing this funding gap on RD&D is crucial to meet any long-term targets to reduce carbon emissions, not just the 350 ppm planetary boundary. This means an additional spending of $40 to $90 billon, according to the IEA, but much more is needed to meet more stringent targets for CO2 reduction. How can this money be raised? One suggestion, proposed by the Canadian economists Isabel Galiana and Chris Green, is for a low—say $5 per tonne—price on carbon, which would barely be noticed by consumers (and hence not attract political opposition) but could raise $150 billion globally per year for RD&D.79 An analogy might be the nuclear industry, which has to pay a small charge for each megawatt-hour of nuclear-generated electricity toward eventual decommissioning costs. The airline industry, for example, could do the same, with a small fee per passenger or flight going to a technology fund that will find ways to decarbonize the industry and so reduce its damage to the atmosphere.

Galiana and Green also suggest that this carbon price should rise gradually over time, sending a forward price signal to the energy markets. Another option is to remove the trading elements from cap and trade schemes like the European Emissions Trading Scheme, shifting the system into a simple auction of carbon credits with the proceeds allocated to an independently administered energy RD&D trust fund. So far the evidence from Europe is that its flagship carbon-trading scheme has done little or nothing to reduce emissions, while allowing the big energy corporations to pocket billions in windfall profits because pliable politicians handed them carbon credits for free rather than auctioning them.80 Never mind the “polluter pays” principle: In this case the polluter got paid. This is not just iniquitous; it represents a serious opportunity cost, as the money went into the pockets of shareholders rather than being usefully invested.

So what new technologies should we focus on, and what new breakthroughs are needed? At the top of my list would be figuring out a cost-effective way to store electricity at a grid level, solving the fundamental problem of intermittency from renewables like wind and solar. From the Maldives to continental Europe, the biggest headache with wind turbines and solar panels is that they deliver nothing when the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining, even though people go on consuming electricity as normal. If some way could be found to store their output, at the very largest scale, then 100 percent renewable power would be a realistic option, rather than backup being needed from on-demand sources like gas.

Fossil fuels have been so successful mainly because they represent concentrated stores of chemical energy, allowing power to be supplied whenever we want and transported globally via pipelines and ships. We need to find a way to allow renewables to deliver the same quality of energy reliability. Hydrogen has been proposed as one storage option, but half the energy is lost when