The Little Blue Reasoning Book - Brandon Royal [3]
We have a tendency to interpret events selectively. If we want things to be “this way” or “that way” we can most certainly select, stack, or arrange evidence in a way that supports such a viewpoint.
Selective perception is based on what seems to us to stand out. However, what seems to us to be standing out may very well be related to our goals, interests, expectations, past experiences, or current demands of the situation — “with a hammer in hand, everything looks like a nail.” The preceding quote highlights the phenomenon of selective perception. If we want to use a hammer, then the world around us may begin to look as though it is full of nails!
THE MAGIC OF COINCIDENCE
Ponder this rather astounding comparison of the assassinations of two famous American presidents:
❧ Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846. John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
❧ Abraham Lincoln was elected president in 1860.
❧ John F. Kennedy was elected president in 1960.
❧ The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters.
❧ Both were particularly concerned with civil rights.
❧ Both wives lost children while living in the White House.
❧ Both presidents were shot on a Friday. Both were shot in the head.
❧ Lincoln’s secretary was named Kennedy. Kennedy’s secretary was named Lincoln.
❧ Both were assassinated by Southerners. Both were succeeded by Southerners. Both successors were named Johnson.
❧ Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808. Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
❧ John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln, was born in 1839. Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy, was born in 1939.
❧ Both assassins were known by their three names.
❧ The names of both assassins comprise fifteen letters.
❧ Booth ran from a theatre and was caught in a warehouse. Oswald ran from a warehouse and was caught in a theatre.
❧ Booth and Oswald were both assassinated before their trials.
❧ A week before Lincoln was shot he was in Monroe, Maryland. A week before Kennedy was shot he was with Marilyn Monroe.
Despite how enticing the above comparison may appear, we must keep in mind that there are likely just as many differences as there are similarities between these two events. Care must be exercised not to overestimate the veracity of such a compilation. Recall the well-known saying: “If a billion chimpanzees were to sit down in front of a billion computers with a billion hours to spare, eventually one of them would type Tolstoy’s War and Peace.” Eventually one chimpanzee would arrange the letters exactly as they appear in that novel — typing the identical letters to form those identical words, in the right order, with the right spaces, and the correct punctuation. Here the magic of chance or coincidence reminds us that almost anything is possible.
At the crossroads of selective perception and coincidence is something known as the “halo effect.” The halo effect is the tendency to view a person, place, or thing favorably based on only a single incident, trait, or characteristic. For example, if someone arrives at our firm to answer a job ad and happens to be impeccably dressed, we may view this person favorably and overlook certain technical qualifications required for the job. Sometimes the halo effect is tied to coincidence. Say, for example, the candidate who arrives at our company for an interview happens to be from our hometown. Perhaps they also know someone we know. These coincidences may cause us to view the candidate favorably in an overall way.
Here’s some offhanded Commonwealth humor.
Year 1981:
❧ Prince Charles got married.
❧ Liverpool crowned Champions of Europe.
❧ Australia