The Little Blue Reasoning Book - Brandon Royal [63]
Author’s note: Here is a follow-up problem which mimics a true-to-life scenario. Surveys or questionnaires completed and returned may not be representative of respondents’ viewpoints in general if surveys or questionnaires not returned would have yielded conflicting information.
President: “I’m worried about the recent turnover in MegaCorp. If employees leave our company disgruntled, such negative feelings can hurt our reputation in the marketplace.”
Human Resources Manager: “Your concerns are unfounded. As part of our post-employment follow-up process, we send questionnaires to each employee within thirty days of his or her leaving the company. These questionnaires seek honest answers and remind employees that all responses will be kept confidential. Of the last 100 employees who left our company, 25 have responded, and only 5 people have mentioned having had any negative employment experience.”
The Human Resource Manager’s argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it fails to acknowledge the possibility that
A) Opinions expressed in such questionnaires are not always indicative of how employees actually felt.
B) Many of those who harbored truly negative feelings about their employment experience at MegaCorp did not respond to the questionnaire.
C) The Public Relations firm Quantum, recently hired by MegaCorp has successfully designed several programs specially aimed at boosting the company’s public image.
D) Questions asking about negative employment experiences have been placed at the end, not at the beginning, of the questionnaire.
E) The response rate in general for questionnaires is 10 percent, meaning that only 1 in 10 questionnaires can be expected to be completed and returned.
The correct answer is choice B. If those former employees of MegaCorp who harbor very negative feeling about the company remain silent (i.e., they don’t respond to the questionnaire), then such views have been omitted from inclusion. Choice A may also be a concern, but it is impossible to tell whether it refers to employees who felt much better about their employment experience or much worse (we can’t assume employees necessarily felt worse!). In choice C, we can’t assume that the public relations efforts of Quantum have any affect on the employees who have left the company; besides, designing and implementing programs are two different things. The placement of questions within the questionnaire (choice D) is likely irrelevant or its impact inconclusive. Choice E strengthens the Human Resource Manager’s claim because the response rate achieved by MegaCorp (i.e., 25⁄100 = 25%) is greater than the general response rate of 10 percent; of course, the higher the response rate the better.
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Cause-and-Effect Assumptions
Problem 19: Cyclist
Choice C. This argument turns correlation into causation. There is likely a high correlation between low body fat and being a world-class cyclist. But there may well be a high correlation among other variables as well. For example, a high correlation also likely exists among muscular strength and world-class cycling, technical skills (maneuvering a bike) and world-class cycling, and being a world-class cyclist.
This problem can also be solved as an, “if … then” type problem. The original reads, “If one is a world-class cyclist, then one has 4 to 11 percent body fat.” When the “if … then” statement is erroneously reversed and the argument becomes, “If one has 4 to 11 percent body fat, then one can be a world-class cyclist.” Having low body fat is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for being a world-class cyclist. “If … then” type statements are discussed in chapter 5.
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Problem 20: SAT Scores
Choice B. The argument basically says that SAT scores have gone up because students